Hormuz Quick Take 5/6/2026
As this morning’s headlines suggest progress toward ending the Iran War, I reflect on the markets, a measure of hope, and the enduring problem of the IRGC.
May 6, 2026
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and during his career served as its Chief Investment Officer, CEO, and Board Chairman. Today, he serves as a Strategic Advisors to the firm and continues to write regular commentaries, author books & pamphlets, and speak at public events. David holds a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and an M.A. in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania.
As this morning’s headlines suggest progress toward ending the Iran War, I reflect on the markets, a measure of hope, and the enduring problem of the IRGC.
We compare the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with selected blockades from WWI to the present and identify some limits of using economic isolation in a war ceasefire scenario.
Rapidly developing war-related negative sentiment sinks global stock markets. Then, a reversal and a powerful rally occur. The S&P makes a new high in record time. How to see this volatility? What I do with stock vol.
David R. Kotok’s financial market commentaries have appeared in publications including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s, and he has appeared on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, Yahoo Finance TV, and other traditional & digital media outlets. He also shares his perspective on his own YouTube channel: youtube.com/@David-R-Kotok
