This Sunday’s missive is about geopolitical risk and what may be leading to a war. IMO, we already have a “proxy” war. Did we learn anything from the 1930s? Is history “rhyming?”
Note that the use of the word rhyming for history is usually attributed to Mark Twain. BTW, he never said it. He did say “History Never Repeats Itself?” as part of a longer quote in the 1874 edition of “The Gilded Age: A Tale of To-Day.”
Anyway, let’s look at some historical dates and events to see if we might observe metaphors.
1. 1929–1933. The October 1929 stock market crash now symbolizes the onset of a great recession with a banking crisis. (“The Stock Market Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression,” https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-stock-market-crash-1929-preceded-great-depression.asp)
2. 1930–31. Smoot-Hawley tariff wars turned the recession into the Great Depression. (“Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act,” https://www.britannica.com/topic/Smoot-Hawley-Tariff-Act”)
3. 1933. Unemployment rate in US hits 25%. FDR wins a landslide election, sweeps Hoover Republicans out of office nationwide. (“Historic Presidential Elections: Hoover vs. Roosevelt – 1932,” https://www.c-span.org/video/?537138-1/historic-presidential-elections-hoover-vs-roosevelt-1932)
4. 1933. In Germany, Adolf Hitler grabs power; Nazi government control is launched. Goebbels becomes minister of propaganda, Nazi war machine expands. (“Hitler Comes to Power,” https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/hitler-comes-to-power)
5. 1933–38. Nazi expansion. Austria annexed. Persecution of Jews and others intensifies. Nazi Germany becomes a threatening military power.
6. Evian Conference, July 1938. Seeks to deal with Jewish refugees from Germany and Austria. It fails because of resistance from the US and other countries. (“The Evian Conference,” https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-evian-conference)
7. Sept. 15–30, 1938. British Prime Minister Chamberlain repeatedly attempts to negotiate with Hitler. Tries appeasement, declares success, but is rejected by all parties. Allies concede Sudetenland to the Nazis and they occupy it in March 1939. (“The British Policy of Appeasement toward Hitler and Nazi Germany,” https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/neville-chamberlain)
8. Kristallnacht (Night of Broken Glass), November 9–10, 1938. (“Kristallnacht,” https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/kristallnacht)
9. Feb. 20, 1939. American Nazi party political rally in iconic Madison Square Garden, NYC. Crowd size: >20,000. (“When Nazis Took Manhattan,” https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2019/02/20/695941323/when-nazis-took-manhattan)
9. May–June 1939. “Voyage of the Damned”. German liner St. Louis carrying 937 Jewish refugees sails from Bremerhaven. Not permitted to land in Cuba or the US. Returns to Europe, where passengers are accepted by Great Britain, Netherlands, Belgium, and France; but 254 eventually die in Nazi Concentration camps. (“Voyage of the St. Louis,” https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/voyage-of-the-st-louis)
10. August 22, 1939. Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact treaty of nonaggression between Germany and the Soviet Union. (“How a Secret Hitler‑Stalin Pact Set the Stage for WWII,” https://www.history.com/news/the-secret-hitler-stalin-nonagression-pact)
11. September 1, 1939, Hitler invades Poland. World War 2 begins. (“The Invasion of Poland,” https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/invasion-poland-september-1939)
12. December 8, 1941. The day after Pearl Harbor was attacked by Japan. America officially joins war. (“Joint Address to Congress Leading to a Declaration of War Against Japan (1941),” https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/joint-address-to-congress-declaration-of-war-against-japan)
13. February 19, 1942. Executive order 9066 is signed by President Roosevelt, leading to the forced internment of 110,000 Japanese American citizens in 10 different concentration camps. Manzanar was the big one in California. (Executive Order 9066: The Internment of 110,000 Japanese Americans,https://www.amazon.com/Executive-Order-9066-Internment-Americans/dp/0934052190; “Denver Art Museum presents The Life and Art of Tokio Ueyama in Summer 2024,” https://www.denverartmuseum.org/en/press/release/denver-art-museum-presents-life-and-art-tokio-ueyama-summer-2024)
14. Fast-forward to end of WW2 in Europe, September 2, 1945. Nazi regime defeated. Hitler commits suicide. (“The End of World War II 1945,” https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/topics/end-world-war-ii-1945)
15. April 30, 1945. Goebbels becomes chancellor of the remaining Nazi regime for one day. Then poisons his six children and he and his wife commit suicide, May 1, 1945. (“Joseph Goebbels,” https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/joseph-goebbels)
16. September 2, 1945. Japan surrenders. WW2 is over.
17. 1945–1952. Post-war era. The Marshall Plan funds the rebuilding of Europe (“Marshall Plan (1948),” https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/marshall-plan). Truman is succeeded by Eisenhower. America is world’s leader. US dollar is world’s reserve currency. Russia leads communist block and Warsaw Pact alliance against Western world. NATO emerges as defense line. Japan is demilitarized. Treasury–Fed Accord, 1951, resolves debt and US govt. finances (“Monetary Accord of 1951: Meaning and History,” https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetary-accord-1951.asp). Korean War reaches a stalemate ceasefire on July 27, 1953 (“Ceasefire,” https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196081/ceasefire/). The great American economic boom of the 1950s–1960s ensues.
Readers may wonder why I assemble a catalog of history bullets about one of the deadliest and bleakest of times in the modern era. Hard to imagine that the list above doesn’t qualify for that characterization.
The cliché answer might be Churchill’s warning: “Study, history, study history!” (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/%E2%80%9C-longer-you-can-look-back-further-you-can-look-forward%E2%80%9D) or Santayana’s warning that “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” (https://americanart.si.edu/artwork/those-who-cannot-remember-past-are-condemned-repeat-it-george-santayana-life-reason-1905)
Both work, but I want to add that this time there is an additional dimension.
In the 4-plus years of research for our new book The Fed and The Flu, my co-authors and I found a repetitive story in history. Please note that our book will be published in February 2025, in eBook, paperback and hardback. Amazon has the preorder for Kindle right now. The rest of the book versions are coming soon.
What we found is that throughout history, every plague, epidemic, or pandemic over the last 3500 years has a similar characteristic. They all trigger a growth in dis- and misinformation. That is an enduring pattern in human behavior. The current replay may be using more modern tools, like AI, than previous ones, but it is definitely a repeat of history. I will excerpt from the book a couple of paragraphs, from Chapter 16, page 348 .
False information comes in two forms. Misinformation and disinformation are both “messages that contradict the best expert evidence available at the time.” Misinformation is messaging that contradicts. the facts, but the factual error is not an intentional one, with ulterior motives involved. Disinformation, on the other hand, is intentional. A disinformer is aware of the facts and spreads inaccurate information anyway.
In the case of disinformation, where falsehoods are intentional and a tool for gaining influence and power or for pursuing profit, the story of the modern model for disseminating and utilizing disinformation cannot be told without a succinct discussion of the Third Reich. The Nazis provided a blueprint for weaponizing a lie. The lie could be used to cause chaos that would undermine the political establishment. it would then be used to gain and maintain power. To the typical person, the Nazis and Hitler left a tragic legacy of death and sorrow. Some, however, see not tragedy but a blueprint for causing chaos and, by that means, gaining power.
In order for people to accept a would-be cult leader’s anti-reality, reality itself must first be undermined. The leader must convince people to mistrust the government, history, science, religion, and even at times medicine. Every authority on every subject must be undermined so that the disinformer can present himself as the real authority on the. subject. When pillars of civilization have collapsed, chaos ensues, and a cult leader can gain power. This was the Nazis’ path to power and remains the primary technique used by cults around the world to brainwash their victims.
There is no way to confirm that it was the information distortions from the Spanish Flu era that set the stage for the distrust and propaganda usage of the 1930s. We can debate that for a long time. What we do know is the Spanish Flu era of 1917–1922 changed the world and that the 1930s followed the 1920s, the pandemic with its economic shocks (we talk about them in the book) played out. Our list above is partial but certainly covers enough territory to set the theme in place for the two-decade (1930–1950) range of time.
When these events unfolded in such deadly fashion, Donald J. Trump, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, and JD Vance were not yet born. Putin, Lyukashenko, Ayatollah Khomeini, Sinwar, Kim Jung Un, and Nasrallah were not yet born.
Alleged immigrant hater Stephen Miller was not born, but, ironically, his ancestors were and their story has been told: “How Stephen Miller Abandoned the Lessons of His Jewish Ancestors,” https://lithub.com/how-stephen-miller-abandoned-the-lessons-of-his-jewish-ancestors/ .
We Americans are about to decide who we are, what we are, and what’s important. I have no forecast for the outcome. The election outcomes for president, The Senate, The House – all are really too close to predict. But I do have deep worry for my country.
I believe that a similar sequence of global history is evolving now, just in a more modern version of the 1930s. The post-Covid shock is also evolving now, just as happened in the history of other plagues. Many plagues were coincidence with wars. The economics, too, are evolving now as they have done in the past after plagues. You can see all that in detail in the book.
Is history rhyming? IMO, it appears that it is. And that means danger since some of the outlook is bleak. Our book demonstrates what happened in the past. Example: The Romans had three plagues over five centuries. They had historians, and teachers, and written records were kept. But they didn’t learn from prior plagues and they repeated their errors each time. The book reports all of this in detail.
In 700 years of post-Black Death European history, the story was not much different.
Modern times are not different. Here we are again.
Readers are invited to carefully consider the events and lessons of the 1930s and compare them item by item with today’s developments. I am sure you will draw parallels through your own independent thinking.
A final historical note. My research revealed a little-known snippet about the end of WW2. When Stalin invaded Germany at the end of WW2 from the east while the Allies were racing to Berlin from the west, he used hardened troops from the Far Eastern front, who had extensive combat experience against the Japanese, in place of European soldiers. Stalin purposefully elected more brutality. Putin is replaying Stalin’s military history from 80 years ago. I fear that the next chapter in the Russo-Ukraine War may show again how history will rhyme. Brutally. And as I write this there is this headline: “N Korea sends troops to fight with Russia” (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3vkqwe9wwdo).
It is a contemplative Sunday right before an American election cycle ends (maybe). The outlook is uncertain, and the risks seem very high. Not much of this history has been discussed among the political antagonists. For a supplemental history lesson see: “Why Did Operation Barbarossa Fail – WW2 1941” https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/operation-barbarossa-and-germanys-failure-in-the-soviet-union . Stay safe. And Please Vote. I already did.
