ICE and Border Patrol activities supervised by DHS Secretary Kristi Noem under the direction of Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security adviser, send people into hiding and stifle economic activity. Before we turn to the recent localized experience in Charlotte, NC, we note that the national immigration policy picture is now on the research agenda of economists. Consider the following.
- First, we have this from the San Francisco Fed:
“New data indicate that net migration will be close to half a million people in 2025, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Estimates based on these data and on past trends for the US-born population suggest that this could lead to a decrease in the working-age population and slower growth in the prime-age labor force. Continued low levels of immigration would lead to decreases in the total prime-age labor force.”(“Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics” | Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/11/immigration-and-changes-in-labor-force-demographics/)
On November 24, TLRWire noted, “If that is correct, foreign-born workers would add just 0.1pp to the labor force in 2025, which will bring growth 0.8pp below the CBO’s January 2025 estimates.” - Next, we recall that the classic formula for growth or shrinkage of an economy is labor force change plus productivity change equals growth rate. The US is now very close to zero labor force growth. Note that government shutdown data distortion or lack of data makes this figure more difficult to estimate.
- Finally, we acknowledge the AI wild card. Maybe the AI revolution will raise productivity so high as to offset the lack of labor force growth. History shows that is an unlikely outcome. Technological advances of the past have eliminated and changed some jobs, but jobs overall have grown. Not every job is an AI job. Just look around, particularly in services. However, AI may shrink the number of jobs as it replaces certain human functions.
Now let’s get to the case study of how the Department of Homeland Security’s Border Patrol mission in Charlotte has thrown North Carolina’s economy into turmoil.
Here’s a succinct account of what happened in North Carolina. ICE, of course, had a presence in Charlotte already, but the Trump administration opted to send Border Control, which normally operates with expanded authority within 100 miles of a border, into the largest city in North Carolina, 1000 miles from the southern border. Why? There is the administration’s quest to pursue “criminal illegal aliens” in a city with “sanctuary policies,” though Charlotte is not a sanctuary city. Those are illegal in NC, which has a Republican legislature and a Democratic governor. It is instead, an inclusive “welcoming city” with 17% of its population born outside the US. Mecklenburg County Sheriff Garry McFadden has a history of disagreement with ICE over what documentation is legally required for the county to hold onto ICE detainees, though an agreement last year now ensures that ICE detainees are held for a period of time for pickup. The reading list below contains several links that will enable interested readers to look into those issues.
The Border Patrol’s Charlotte mission began on Saturday, November 15, churned through the weekend, and stretched through the 19th, ending, local officials were told, on November 20. During that period Border Patrol expanded its operations into Raleigh and Durham in North Carolina’s Research Triangle. Since then, however, DHS has noted that “Operation Charlotte’s Web” will, in fact, continue, in the hands of ICE. During its Charlotte operations, US Border Patrol arrested 370 people it claimed to be in the US illegally. Of those, 44 had prior criminal records.
The economic impact on the city was concerning, particularly on Charlotte’s east side. According to La Noticia, about 30 businesses closed during the Border Patrol’s “Operation Charlotte’s Web.” These businesses serve the Latino community, and fear drove many to stay home. Some 30,000 students were absent from area schools. Anyone who looked Latino and had an accent was at risk. Reports rolled in. One US citizen born in the American territory of Puerto Rico was picked up twice — once on Saturday and once on Sunday. A laundromat owner saw a 50% reduction in the number of customers. A bakery closed in order to keep customers safe. Construction sites were idled. Restaurants closed or operated on reduced hours. See details for these instances here: “Charlotte ‘Nearly Empty’ as Local Businesses Struggle Amid ICE Crackdown” | Newsweek. On Charlotte’s east side, disruptions cost small businesses, according to one survey by nonprofit CharlotteEast, an average of $2500; but impacts and costs rippled across the whole city.
According to the North Carolina Budget & Tax Center, $692 million in NC state and local tax revenue in 2022 was paid by undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, US taxpayers are paying, according to government estimates, an average of $17,121 to deport each illegal immigrant, and the cost may well be higher. However people feel about immigration, the numbers tell an economic story with repercussions for local and state economies and the US economy as a whole.
The Charlotte ICE-raid evidence comes from both local and national sources. Readers, decide, please, whether you think this kind of activity is good for the US economy. And also think about what it means for you and your local economy. The fear and its economic implications will last beyond the escalated activity in Charlotte. The ICE visit to St. Armand’s Circle on Lido Key in Sarasota, FL, is still causing trepidation and business retrenchment in my neighborhood.
In Durham, NC, Nida Allam, the chair of the Durham Board of County Commissioners, concluded, “None of this was about securing our borders, none of it was about enforcing the law. It was a show of force meant to scare people.”
Note that NC has two Republican US Senators, Thom Tillis and Ted Budd. They own the votes they cast in the US Senate that brought about the federal government’s induced economic turmoil in their state.
For his part, Thom Tillis has expressed concern over tactics used in Charlotte:
I want to make sure that Homeland Security can provide me with the definitive list of people who were detained, how long they were detained, whether or not they were released and, when property was damaged, whether or not they’ve been provided proper restitution. We’re the party of law and order, and I want to make sure that we are also orderly in enforcing it.
Tillis’s question is relevant to the legality of Border Patrol and ICE tactics. When it is operating outside its jurisdiction up to 100 miles from any border, Border Patrol falls under the same constitutional constraints that other law enforcement agencies, including ICE, are supposed to fall under.
Charlotte case study is, of course, being repeated nationally. Economic impacts here and economic impacts there add up. There’s no getting around that.
Now here’s the list of evidence for the case study in North Carolina.
Charlotte Reading List
“Homeland Security agents surge into North Carolina’s largest city. What to know” | NBC Chicago, https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/homeland-security-charlotte-north-carolina-explainer/3852066
“Federal immigration enforcement sweeps Charlotte months after Ukrainian refugee killing shocked nation” | FOX News, https://www.foxnews.com/us/federal-immigration-enforcement-sweeps-charlotte-months-ukrainian-refugee-killing-shocked-nation
“What’s happening in North Carolina? Feds are swarming the swing state” | USA Today, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/11/19/north-carolina-immigration-enforcement-trump-administration/87334104007/
“‘I lose my liberty in that moment’: Charlotte shuts down as citizens and noncitizens alike face ICE arrests ” | The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/20/charlotte-north-carolina-ice-raids?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
“Federal agents launch immigration crackdown in city of Charlotte” | BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx3n4r2g04o
“Why are US border agents in Charlotte, and are they allowed to operate there?” | The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/17/border-agents-charlotte-immigration-explainer
“Federal immigration enforcement sweeps Charlotte months after Ukrainian refugee killing shocked nation” | FOX News, https://www.foxnews.com/us/federal-immigration-enforcement-sweeps-charlotte-months-ukrainian-refugee-killing-shocked-nation
“After years of battles, NC GOP is on the cusp of requiring sheriffs to cooperate with ICE” | News & Observer (2018, background), https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article286823265.html#storylink=cpy
Tillis Responds
“Thom Tillis wants answers from Homeland Security on Operation Charlotte’s Web” | MSN (from the Charlotte Observer), https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/thom-tillis-wants-answers-from-homeland-security-on-operation-charlotte-s-web/ar-AA1QPHI5
Over or Not?
“ICE Operation ‘Charlotte’s Web’ Is Over: What We Know” | Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/charlotte-ice-dhs-north-carolina-operation-charlottes-web-11082676
“Sheriff’s office says federal immigration crackdown in Charlotte, N.C., has ended, but DHS denies it’s over” | CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/charlotte-immigration-crackdown-north-carolina-ended-sheriff/
Elsewhere in the US
“What Trump’s federal crackdown looks like in 5 US cities” | USA Today, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/10/25/trump-crime-immigration-crackdown-cities-troops/86815712007/
“Here’s What It Can Cost to Detain and Deport Just One Person” | Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-deportation-detention-true-costs
Meanwhile in Florida (my state)
“Palm Beach County leads South Florida in local police agencies with ICE agreements” | Sun Sentinel, https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2025/11/21/palm-beach-county-leads-south-florida-in-local-police-agencies-with-ice-agreements/
Immigration Court ICE Trap
“Photos show inside Trump’s takeover of immigration courts” | AP News, https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/photos-immigration-court-trump-37f8d8a6da91452ac2a3ba2637da6423
“Migrants thought they were in court for a routine hearing. Instead, it was a deportation trap” | AP News, https://apnews.com/article/immigration-courts-deportations-trump-administration-8b9fab5475c0da4c0f13f3381de91448
Labor Force
“Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics” | FRBSF Economic Letter, https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/11/immigration-and-changes-in-labor-force-demographics/
Job Market Weakening
“You’re not imagining it, the job market is weakening” | Pinpoint Press, https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/youre-not-imagining-it-the-job-market?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true
