In the financial world, corporate insider trading is a crime. Throughout my career, I have been subject to those rules. They are simply summarized: If you know something that is not yet public, you cannot tell anyone, and you cannot make a profit from the knowledge. You cannot tell your wife or kids or best friend. You cannot have a shill make a trade for you.
The following link shows what a list of reported insider trades looks like. Public filings of germane information and full compliance with the law are required.
“Insider trades: Intel, Bank of America and Pinterest among notable names” | Seeking Alpha,
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590237-insider-trades-intel-bank-of-america-and-pinterest-among-notable-names
Trading must be done without any apparent “front running” of a news item. Corporate insider trading rules have serious penalties if they are violated. However, it’s the government insider trading rules that are the issue today, as we have observed reports of anonymously traded securities with trades timed just ahead of consequential policy announcements and other market-moving Trump social media posts.
We are making this narrative short and the reading list long. The list has two sections. One is a partial list of references about the state of law, regulation, and supervision of government insider trading. The second section consists of media reports and social media comments about actual transactions that have been observed.
The evidence is circumstantial and reflects a pattern of trades executed anonymously shortly before policy announcements are made, possibly by those in government with knowledge not yet available to the public.
Readers are invited to review these sources (a subset of a vast body of reporting) and reach their own conclusions. Please think about how this information undermines the credibility of the government when it comes to the conduct of foreign policy including war and domestic policy of all types.
Government Insider Trading: The Law
“Can Politicians Legally Insider Trade: Laws and Loopholes” | Legal Clarity, https://legalclarity.org/can-politicians-legally-insider-trade/
“Insider Trading” | Congress.gov,
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF11966“Congressional Stock Trading and the STOCK Act” | Campaign Legal, https://campaignlegal.org/update/congressional-stock-trading-and-stock-act
Insider Trading on Tariff Policy Change?
A number of executive branch employees and congressional aides sold stocks ahead of “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.
“More Than a Dozen U.S. Officials Sold Stocks Before Trump’s Tariffs Sent the Market Plunging” | ProPublica,
https://www.propublica.org/article/us-officials-stock-sales-trump-tariffs
Insider Trading on War News?
December 2026
A US soldier trades on Maduro ouster mission and gets caught, having failed to cover his tracks.
“U.S. Soldier in Maduro Raid Is Charged With Making Bets on Former Leader’s Ouster” | Wall Street Journal,
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-soldier-in-maduro-raid-is-charged-with-making-bets-on-leaders-ouster-535caf49?st=VAT4np&reflink=article_gmail_share“U.S. Soldier Charged with Using Classified Information to Profit from Prediction Market Bets” | US DOJ,
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets
March 2026
On the 23rd, 16 minutes ahead of Trump’s announcing a pause in US strikes on Iran, anonymous traders invested $580 million on oil futures. On the 24th, the White House responded with a warning to staff not to trade on information not yet public.
April 2026
On April 7, a number of new Polymarket accounts bet on a ceasefire shortly before Trump announced a deal. There appears to be a pattern, as multiple observers have noted.
“US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump Pivots” | Bloomberg,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/us-probes-suspicious-oil-trades-made-before-trump-iran-pivots“BBC Report Finds Signs of ‘Insider Trading’ Based on Trump’s Posts” | Yahoo! Finance,”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bbc-report-finds-signs-insider-165133956.html“The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump’s presidency” | BBC News (4-minute video), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7nsnc4FiZU&t=12s
“Insider trading is still, in case anyone has forgotten, illegal” | FT Alphaville,
https://ftav.substack.com/p/insider-trading-is-still-in-case?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=5kmoz2&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email“Loaded Dice Will Blow Up in Our Faces” | Spencer Jakab, https://spencerjakab.substack.com/p/loaded-dice-will-blow-up-in-our-faces?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=5agz1&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
“Mysterious trading patterns follow Trump into war” | Axios, https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-iran-oil-insider-trading
“Traders placed $580mn in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump’s social media post on Iran talks” | Financial Times,
https://www.ft.com/content/1171d623-3709-4f6e-8ded-a5df4ec57696?syn-25a6b1a6=1“Trump Admin Accused of Insider Trading in Bombshell Report” | Knewz,
https://knewz.com/trump-administration-accused-of-insider-trading“White House Reportedly Warns Staff Against Insider Trading As Lawmakers Raise Concerns” | https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/white-house-oil-prediction-markets-polymarket-bets-insider-trading-war/
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