The 16th Congressional District in Florida has been gerrymandered to touch 6 Florida counties. They are Manatee, DeSoto and Hardee with parts of Sarasota, Pinellas and Polk counties included in the 16th district. As you will see, this district was tailor-made for the Republican nominee, Sydney Gruters. She is married to Joe Gruters, the Trump-backed Republican National Committee chairman and a Florida state senator.
District Map Source: https://ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia is a 501(c)3 charitable nonprofit organization and is not affiliated with any campaigns or candidates for office.
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A remarkable development has appeared in the newly configured 16th Congressional District in Florida. George Kruse, a prominent Republican and former Chairman (2025) of the Manatee County Florida Board of Commissioners, published a Substack column with reference to a new poll showing surprising weakness in the Sydney Gruters campaign against former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner.
Here’s the link to the Kruse post: https://georgekruse.substack.com/p/informed-voters-trend-toward-kirschner
Policy 68Informed Voters Trend Toward Kirschner
7 days ago · 12 likes · 3 comments · George W Kruse
George Kruse’s support for Democrat Kelly Kirschner, together with the poll results, suggests local concerns could overcome party loyalty and give Sydney Gruters a tougher contest than expected. This is truly a dramatic surprise where a district drawn to favor Republicans may be more competitive than intended.
Here’s a link to the full polling data: https://georgekruse.substack.com/api/v1/file/ebe917b5-04cc-4ea8-840f-245f6a276ef0.pdf
Our excerpt from the survey and poll results is from a larger set where they asked voters their preference at three stages. Gruters initially led Kirschner 43% to 39%. After respondents heard profiles of both candidates, Kirschner led 44% to 43%. After two additional questions presenting criticisms of Gruters, Kirschner led 44% to 42%. These later results reflect voters’ preferences after receiving information during the survey, rather than their initial preferences.
Q8. Kelly Kirschner is a third-generation Floridian, former Sarasota mayor, and Peace Corps volunteer running as the Democratic nominee for Florida’s 16th Congressional District. He grew up working his family’s Manatee County citrus stand, led Eckerd College’s workforce training programs, and is campaigning on affordability, protecting Medicare, and curbing money in politics. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Kelly Kirschner?
Very convincing 28% ……………………………………….
Somewhat convincing 21% ……………………………….
Not convincing 35% …………………………………………
Not sure 16% ………………………………………………….
Q9. Sydney Gruters is the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee for Florida’s 16th Congressional District. A working mother of three, she served Southwest Florida as a senior aide to Reps. Vern Buchanan and Greg Steube, worked at the USDA, led the New College Foundation, and pledges to lower costs and protect conservative values. Do you find this a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not a convincing reason to vote for Sydney Gruters?
Very convincing 24% ……………………………………….
Somewhat convincing 18% ……………………………….
Not convincing 44% …………………………………………
Not sure 14%………………………………………………….
(Note: Readers are invited to examine the full poll details; you will need a half hour. The demographic breakdown is provided in detail.)
Kotok: Here are the results for a key question suggesting Kirschner is a serious competitor in this race.
Q13. Having heard all the information in this survey, let me ask you one last time: the candidates for Congress this fall are Democrat Kelly Kirschner and Republican Sydney Gruters. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Kelly Kirschner 44% …………………………………………
Sydney Gruters 42% ………………………………………..
Not sure 14%…………………………………………………
Source: Public Policy Polling, Florida’s 16th Congressional District survey, October 1–2, 2026. Sample: 530 registered voters. Reported margin of error: ±4.3 percentage points. Q10 follows candidate profiles; Q13 follows additional questions presenting criticisms of Gruters.
Kotok: Context is critical, especially when it comes to an interim gerrymandered district carved out by the Florida State legislature.
The statewide scandals in Florida include Alligator Alcatraz, which WUSF reports has cost the state about $1 billion. I consider that a waste of taxpayer money. The incomplete federal reimbursement for the detention facilities is troubling. The Republican silence about this use of taxpayer money is appalling, IMO.
Note that Florida’s 16th Congressional District has not been on the national radar screen. The new poll and October 5 Kruse post suggest it should be. As of October 6, prediction markets, also called betting markets, hadn’t reacted much. Kalshi trading volume was flat and pricing unchanged. Polymarket showed a slightly lower implied probability of a Gruters victory. Both markets still favored Gruters to win. That may reflect Gruters’ substantial fundraising advantage and the district’s heavily Republican voter registration. Why am I citing betting markets? There are now some studies suggesting that they have better predictive characteristics than traditional polling. They can react quickly to news or changes. If you’re new to these markets, there’s a short explanation at the end of today’s piece about how they work and why investors and political observers watch them.
But context is critical in Florida 16.
The contrast between the two candidates is stark and clear. One defends Trump and his policies and has his endorsement. Here’s the YouTube video, “Trump doubles down on Sydney Gruters endorsement”:
Sydney Gruters is married to State Senator and national Republican leader Joe Gruters. He was handpicked by Trump for the national Republican party role. That means Sydney will have gobs of campaign money and outraise Kirschner. Proof is her spending of more than $1 million to win her primary. Her history is straightforward. Political staff roles for outgoing Cong. Vern Buchanan and for Cong. Greg Steube and a Trump political appointment. Then a New College role after the school was taken over by Governor DeSantis.
Kelly Kirschner has two decades of public, academic and global experience. He is fluent in Spanish and fully bilingual. He was a Dean (Eckerd College in St. Petersburg). He served abroad (Guatemala) and, most importantly, he was elected a commissioner and served as mayor of Sarasota.
The Sydney Gruters campaign website is: www.grutersforcongress.com .
The Kelly Kirschner campaign website is: www.kellykirschner.com .
Here are selected excerpts from Public Policy Polling’s summary of the survey results (hat tip to George Kruse).
“This race is in competitive range, with Gruters leading Kirschner only 43-39. The undecideds voted for Trump by 9 but give him a -28 favorability rating now. […] If the undecideds voted in line with their feelings about Trump- not unusual in a midterm- Kirschner would take a 1-point lead. A 1-point lead is incidentally where the race ends up for Kirschner after voters learn more about both of the candidates. These folks are really a bit of a blank slate at this point with Gruters having only 52% name recognition and Kirschner 40%. But voters like what they hear more about Kirschner.
The other factor that could possibly really position Kirschner for an upset here is enthusiasm. He’s up 48-42 among voters who are ‘very excited’ to cast their ballots this year while Gruters is completely dependent on a 45-24 lead among those who aren’t very excited to vote. If enough of those people stay home this race could get even tighter. With Trump underwater (44/50) in the district despite his double-digit win there and a Republican candidate who doesn’t appear to be very strong this is much more competitive than the GOP ever meant for it to be!”
Here’s more context.
Some of the local S. Gruters billboards no longer show “Trump Endorsed.” I saw the prominent one near the I-75-University intersection at the UTC complex. It featured “Sheriff endorsed” and “Firefighter endorsed” but no “Trump endorsed”. With Trump’s approval ratings low and sinking, is she trying to soften her ties to him? Trump said, “Pretend I’m on the ballot”. Is S. Gruters trapped with a Trump identity? Or has she decided to stick with the image?
Here’s an interesting snippet for those who wish to delve deeply into the President Trump-Candidate S. Gruters-Senator J. Gruters connection. https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-awkward-hand-grip-with-gop-chair-joe-gruters-wife-sydney-gruters-raises-eyebrows/ .
Meanwhile, Kirschner has a section on his website listing Republicans, like Kruse, who are supporting him instead of Gruters. There is no indication of any broadening support or crossover Democrats listed on Gruters’s website.
More context.
Discussed by Kirschner but not mentioned by S. Gruters is the New College takeover of the University of South Florida Sarasota- Manatee campus in what has been criticized as a “real estate raid”. Not mentioned is that Sydney’s husband was a previous supporter of the university. Then he stepped aside during the DeSantis budget fray. That enabled DeSantis to secure an eleventh-hour $20 million deal.
Kotok personal note: When 400 constituents assembled to defend USFSM, no Gruters showed up. The previously supportive local senator didn’t come to a rally of 400 constituents. I was one of the constituents who attended. I remember telling others, “We can count on Joe Gruters.” Clearly, I was wrong.
Local businesses and the chambers of commerce in both counties asked Republican politicians to save the local university; no Gruters appeared. Local hospitals that were receiving nursing students from the university’s nursing school program quietly said they would lose the feeder system for new nurses; no Gruters appeared. There is a stark candidate contrast between Kirschner and Gruters when it comes to the region losing a university. Will many aligned with the university cross over to Kirschner instead of voting for Gruters? I was involved in the philanthropy that funded those nurses. Not one of my donor colleagues will now vote for Gruters.
Another key issue strongly distinguishes Gruters from Kirschner. While local businesses are losing Haitian workers to revoked TPS policy, the Gruters website talks about “securing our borders” and when local health care facilities have Trump policy induced staff shortages, she advocates “helping our seniors”.
In contrast, Kirschner can tell you about the businesses he has visited, the case studies he has examined and the deportation horror stories he has personally heard during his “shoe leather” campaign. IMO, the damage inflicted in Florida by the Trump TPS policy is worsening daily and is now documented. I will publish the details separately in a data-driven analysis from the September employment report.
Further Context.
The Trump souvenir stores are fewer. Trump souvenir stores in Osprey, Englewood, Port Charlotte and Charlotte Harbor have permanently closed. Trump posters and banners are now rare. There is no visible Trump Media signage at its listed Sarasota address on Cattlemen Road.
This deterioration in the Trump brand is not in a vacuum.
Republicans have had to defend Sarasota Memorial Hospital from a Flynn-led takeover attack. I participated in that defense which was contested in a Sarasota County Republican primary. The mainstream Republicans got about 2/3 of the vote which included Democrats and independents who crossed over party affiliation to vote to save the hospital. The destroyer Republicans got about 1/3 (destroyer is my word for the Flynn-takeover attempt slate).
In Manatee County, local Republicans broke with DeSantis on a policy difference. He allegedly punished them by lining out money for Manatee in the state budget.
In Sarasota County, the Bridget Ziegler-led, book banning, scandalous school board is slowly being evicted. The contest for Ziegler’s seat is now in Sarasota County between Jimmy Glover and Heidi Brandt.
Disclosure: I have contributed to Glover and intend to vote for him and against Brandt. Why? I want a clean new school board without any salacious Ziegler baggage of the past scandals hanging over it. Note: Brandt called me for my vote in what is supposed to be a nonpartisan school board election. My caller ID said “Republican Party of Sarasota Co.” The number calling me was 941-777-4467. The call was an automated message and has been repeated. Note that the Democrats have listed Jimmy Glover on their voter guide and the Republicans listed Heidi Brandt on their voter guide. So much for a nonpartisan election? Just as George Kruse is a Republican supporting Kirschner, I join him in thinking and voting independently. So, I am a Republican supporting Glover.
Some politics “is” local.
There are about 160,000 registered Republicans in Sarasota County. Many of us have been gerrymandered out of the old Vern Buchanan district. We have had to defend our hospital against a Republican attack from within my own political party. We have watched a university dismembered. Personal note: I was funding scholarships for Sarasota-Manatee students who will now have to travel an hour and a half to complete their degrees in Tampa. These local students were working and attending school at a fully accredited university. They were from low-income households and had attended Title I schools. Seventeen of them qualified on merit last year. Poof! The program is gone thanks to the midnight DeSantis-New College raid.
I cannot vote in the 16th district. The gerrymandering divided Sarasota, and I live west of I-75, in Greg Steube’s district. But I am talking with folks who live in Manatee County or in Sarasota east of I-75, where Kirschner is running against Sydney Gruters. They are torn. Some like Joe Gruters. He is affable and usually pleasant. Those who know Sydney also speak positively of her personally. Yet these same folks don’t like Trump and despise his policies. They say his continued blaming of Biden is now a sham excuse. It may have worked a couple of years ago, but it is “lame” now.
When you ask them if they think it makes sense to rip apart a family that was fully legal, working and taxpaying, and arrest and deport the parents right in front of the children, and leave the 5 children who are American citizens in the household with the 18-year-old in charge, they universally say it is wrong.
Then ask them if they can separate smiling personality from serious policy. Can and will they determine their vote based on what the Trump policy is delivering? Privately, they say yes. They also privately say that they socialize and don’t talk about the election, but they intend to vote according to their personal moral compass. They know Trump’s policy is hurting local folks.
IMO, Kelly Kirschner is an articulate politician and a quality candidate. True, he is facing a lot of money; Sydney Gruters can outspend him. So, the final contest comes down to big money & Trump’s policy versus a skilled and seasoned politician who can articulate policy and explain it his way. To me, that is what we need in Congress.
George Kruse’s declaration and the poll results suggest that the new 16th Congressional district is not the Sydney Gruters layup that the gerrymander was supposed to produce. So, we have the modern version of the question posed by the late House Speaker Tip O’Neill (1912-1994). Are all politics local? It appears the answer may be “yes” in the newly configured FL 16.
For those interested, a word on Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, let participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events, such as an election outcome. A typical “yes” contract pays $1 if the event occurs and nothing if it doesn’t. A price of 65 cents is generally interpreted as roughly a 65% chance of that outcome. In an election market, that means the candidate’s estimated chance of winning, not an expected 65% share of the vote. The CFTC explains how these contracts work here.
For investors, their potential value extends beyond betting on a winner. Changing probabilities offer another way to assess uncertainty about events that could affect investments. Interest rate expectations matter to bondholders, while election outcomes can change expectations about tax policy or regulation. Investors can watch these signals without trading the contracts themselves. Some contracts can also help hedge a specific event-related risk.
Political polls and prediction markets answer different questions. A poll asks sampled voters whom they support at a particular time. An election prediction market asks traders to assess who will ultimately win. Traders can incorporate polling, turnout expectations and other information, and prices can respond to news without waiting for another survey. Money provides an incentive to identify mistaken prices. Research by economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz has found that these markets can combine dispersed information into useful forecasts.
That makes prediction markets a useful alternative forecasting tool, but their accuracy depends on how the market works and how actively it trades. Thin trading can weaken the signal, and trading restrictions can produce persistent pricing biases. They also don’t provide the demographic detail or explanations of voter attitudes that surveys offer. I wouldn’t use them without polling and local knowledge when judging a race like Florida’s 16th. But I do watch their use with some fascination.
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