The Bradenton Journal asked a question.
Why is President Donald Trump going after a Democrat who until recently wasn’t given much chance of winning Florida’s 16th Congressional District, even in 2026? And why now, with early voting underway and Election Day just eight days away?
Here’s a link to the full story: https://thebradentonjournal.substack.com/p/why-is-trump-suddenly-going-after
The Bradenton JournalWhy is Trump suddenly going after Kelly Kirschner?
Welcome to The Bradenton Journal…
a day ago · 7 likes · Marc R. Masferrer
If you check the Bradenton Journal site, you can see earlier posts that detail the millions being spent in this race by various PACs on behalf of Sydney Gruters, wife of RNC chairman Joe Gruters.
We have written about this race in the past. Here’s the link: https://dkotok.substack.com/p/midterms-in-floridas-16th-gruters
Midterms in Florida’s 16th: Gruters vs. Kirschner, Prediction Markets and a Dramatic Surprise
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Oct 11
The 16th Congressional District in Florida has been gerrymandered to touch 6 Florida counties. They are Manatee, DeSoto and Hardee with parts of Sarasota, Pinellas and Polk counties included in the 16th district. As you will see, this district was tailor-made for the Republican nominee, Sydney Gruters. She is married to Joe Gruters, the Trump-backed Rep…
There is a point where campaign spending becomes overkill. And if the spending is on blatant deception, it reveals itself to thinking voters who may recoil. The amount of hate and deception and toxicity thrown at Kelly Kirschner has reached an extreme. That may be one of the reasons that so many Republicans are rejecting the Gruters campaign message and have declared themselves publicly for Kirschner. That includes the former chair of the Manatee County commission, an elected republican leader, George Kruse.
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IMO, two things suggest Kirschner is closing the gap with Gruters. The first is Trump’s social media post mentioned in the article. Readers can see it for themselves. Spending millions and a presidential social media post a week before the election? Really? Maybe the dismemberment of the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus is having a real effect on changing voters’ attitudes about Joe Gruters and Sydney Gruters?
The second is the changes in the betting markets, which have been moving in Kirschner’s direction. I track the categories of margin of victory on Polymarket. They are shifting, apparently in the direction of Kirschner.
A disclosure. I have not bet in the betting markets on this race. Second disclosure. There is an entire developing betting market strategy. It is similar to an options market strategy. You can bet on a win or loss, a straddle, or a vertical. Think about the various ways to use call and put options and then translate them into the various categories in the betting markets. And think about the arbitrage possibilities among and between betting markets.
Note, there is no regulation and insiders can trade. A pollster seeing a change before publication could bet. A journalist knowing an editorial or endorsement is coming could bet. If someone knew about the Trump post and wanted to bet in advance, they could do so. THERE ARE NO INSIDER TRADING RULES.
Kirschner is being outspent. IMO, he is a quality candidate on policy and governance. And he certainly is not the person that the blistering toxic ads depict. He has a public record. Compare it with the millions being spent on messages, and those messages are revealed to be a liar’s game of made-up fiction.
I believe some voters will see through this. I still have confidence in the country and the system. I hope I’m right.
Thanks for taking ten minutes to focus on the six counties in Florida where a political lab experiment is underway. Massive money spend (Gruters) versus a quality public official running for Congress (Kirschner). Disclosure: I contributed to Kirschner.
We end with this note, which demonstrates the bizarre nature of politics. Reuters reports that losing presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro failed to comply with a Brazilian court order and is en route to the United States. We wonder if Stephen Miller will advise POTUS 47 to grant the young Bolsonaro asylum?
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