Our optimism about Florida’s economic outlook is waning. In my opinion, Florida is weakening economically, and the positive outlook is fading. We will provide some evidence and leave the rest to readers.
Business Conditions
If you look at the most recent quarterly business conditions survey about the Orlando, FL, area, the trends are confirmed. Things are still positive but less so than a year ago. All trends are heading downward. The full survey can be accessed as a PDF: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Orlando-MSA-Business-Conditions-Survey-Q3-2025.pdf. Here’s the newspaper report from the Orlando Sentinel (readers who aren’t subscribers may encounter a paywall after the first article or two):
“Survey: More Central Florida businesses fret about prospects amid economic uncertainty” | Orlando Sentinel,https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/11/01/survey-more-central-florida-businesses-fret-about-prospects-amid-economic-uncertainty/
Outmigration
There is an outmigration underway. This local headline conveys the gist:
“Quarter of Florida residents ‘seriously’ contemplate leaving state because of high cost of living, survey says” | Orlando Sentinel, https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/11/04/quarter-of-florida-residents-seriously-contemplate-leaving-state-because-of-high-cost-of-living-survey-says/.
Those who are “thinking about it somewhat” constitute almost another quarter of the population, for a total nearing half. Readers may review complete survey results at https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2025/florida-american-dream.php
Real Estate Prices Falling
In some places the downward trajectory of real estate prices is accelerating. Personal example: I sold a Sarasota Bay front condo to a “flipper” two years ago. He was the higher of two bidders. Two years later, he still owns it. It has been on and off the market but has not sold. That story is repeated in many places in the state.
The “Why?” Is Harder
The “why” of Florida’s slowdown is more difficult. The debate is intensely political.
“We don’t have Canadians coming anymore,” said a Sarasota restaurateur. Her lunches and ambiance haven’t changed. Her politics have completely reversed. “Trump killed my business,” she said.
“The Europeans aren’t coming as much” said another merchant whose apparel store catered to European fashion tastes. “Neither are South Americans,” he said. “And those ICE masked people who were walking around St. Armand’s Circle didn’t help.”
Others mention the issue of healthcare and cite the policy of no vaccination for measles prevention. One doc first extracted a promise of anonymity before sharing his decisive take: “I’m just waiting for the big outbreak at Disney World when all the kids burst out with pimples and fevers.” Florida’s measles vax rate is now lower than is required for a community preventive response. As the Orlando Sentinel reports, “Statewide, only about 89% of kindergartners are fully vaccinated, with Sarasota County having the lowest rate, at about 80%. To be safe from the spread of measles, a community must be 95% immunized.” And Florida stopped reporting infectious disease outbreak data at the Florida Department of Health website back in May, though measles cases are still reported to the CDC.
Other businesses in Florida face hiring issues as Florida’s deportation policies scare away labor force participation. Just ask local businesses, who will often speak privately and on condition of anonymity.
Consider the map below, focused on immigrants working in the construction sector.
For more detail on immigrant populations across the 50 states see “50 States: Immigrants by Number and Share,” https://immresearch.org/publications/50-states-immigrants-by-number-and-share-2/.
What happens if these immigrants are all deported versus what happens if a policy change creates a legal system for them to remain? Not every person who comes here from somewhere else is a murderer-rapist. (In fact, the crime rate among immigrants is lower than the crime rate among native-born citizens.)
Even those who are American citizens are scared. I have interviewed several. They are of Latino descent or have a Spanish-sounding name. They now are afraid of being “snatched.” One said to me, “I don’t trust my safety anymore. Masked folks with guns and no body cams or IDs. And how do I know if they are real or a criminal masquerading as a law enforcement officer? And now I must worry about people carrying weapons in Publix. I’m scared.”
Florida has a “K-shaped economy,” just like other places in the US. The wealthy are living in their safe enclaves. Many others, either working or retired, are worried. I worry with them about Florida’s economic outlook.
Let’s close this Sunday letter on two brighter notes:
A New Restaurant
Don Luigi Restaurant in Sarasota is now open. It is an unusual dining format of multi-course tasting offerings —pleasant, creative, imaginative—and some dishes are exceptional. I had the three-course tasting dinner, which happened that day to be prosciutto-melon, plus pasta (the gnocchi special) and an exquisitely done branzino. This was on the third night after Chef Don Luigi opened, with the wines not fully delivered yet. Three winners! And then a special Matcha tea cheesecake with espresso for dessert. If you are able to dine there, please tell Chef Luigi that “David sent me.” Don Luigi Restaurant is located downtown on Palm Ave across from Art Ovations Hotel and from the parking garage next to KoJo. The address is 1272 North Palm Avenue, Sarasota, FL 34236 (phone: 941-366-7648). Sarasota residents and visitors interested in details about this unique dining experience can learn more at https://www.donluigigourmet.com.
A Note on Fishing The male largemouth bass migrate into Lake Okeechobee and start the process of building nests along the fronts of the weed beds. You can see the marks on their bellies from their actions of moving and scraping the bottom around. After a few weeks and when the temperature drops, the females arrive and drop eggs in those nests. There is a lot of activity, and a quintillion microscopic bass babies are created. Most of them are eaten, but enough survive to keep the natural process going. Lake O is 30 miles long and 32 miles wide and all shallow. There is no outflow, so water overflows into a huge swamp (the Everglades) and creates a massive tourist attraction of hundreds of square miles. Here’s one of those males taken on the fly rod and released immediately after the photo was taken.
Caption: Photo taken by Christine Schlesinger, with assistance from Jared McMillan, a professional bass tournament fisherman and our guide.
