DOGE — Is It Dead, or Deadly?

Cutting spending intelligently is not easy. DOGE cuts RAISE disaster risks AS Trump 2.0 spending priorities balloon the deficit.
Markets Discussion Part 3: 10yr T-note Yield vs US Dollar

How do Trump tariffs correlate with the trajectory of the US dollar? Time will clarify.
Markets Discussion Series Part 2 – Composition of Debt

As the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is set to soar, is it federal debt to GDP or total debt to GDP that counts?
The Fed and Rick Scott

Senator Rick Scott has attacked the Fed. Reader can decide — truth, fiction, or political hyperbole? We supply relevant facts.
Markets Discussion Series Part 1: Vol Shocks

Volatility trends since the Great Financial Crisis indicate that old assumptions may not be reliable.
COVID, Vax, RFK Jr.—What’s Next?

Public health policy changes have enormous implications, including economic ones.
The Bull Case?

There is a possible bullish stock market case for the Trump tariffs and other policy outcomes. Here’s a scenario; it’s not a forecast.
Healthcare in America

Does the healthcare sector go from growing to shrinking? Does it get better or worse?
President “Fiscal” and the Road Ahead

According to the CBO, President Trump’s numbers don’t add up. I discuss the deficit, the “Nifty 14,” the bond market, and the price of protectionism.
Inflation and the Fed

Is a positive “real” interest rate necessary? Let’s look at the data.