Kotok Quick Take: Rick Newman on US Default Risk
Rick Newman reports on what a non-zero US default risk costs us. I offer my two-minute take.
Section 70302: A Poison Pill in the Big Beautiful Bill
Section 70302 of the Big Beautiful Bill targets the federal courts, with huge implications for individuals, businesses and fiduciaries of all types.
A Kotok Quick Take: ICE Operations in Tallahassee, FL
An ICE raid impacts individuals, families, businesses, and the economy.
Farley, Fishing, & Finnegan
We mull the economic impacts of pandemics and tariffdemics and the value of fishing trips.
Poppies
The US Memorial Day tradition of wearing a poppy in memory of the fallen began in a Flanders field during WWI, after the dead were laid to rest among the flowers.
A Memoir: Mike McKee’s Lobster Dinner!
Mike McKee remembers August 5, 2011, when S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the United States for the first time.
Impact of Trump Tariffs on S&P 500 Earnings
I estimate the earnings-per-share shock that is commencing in Q2, 2025. It is likely to intensify as the year progresses.
Measles Resurgence Comes with High Costs
Whatever the US spends (or doesn’t) on the public health response to measles, measles cases drive high productivity costs.
Maybe It Won’t Be So Bad?
In an interview with Kathleen Hays, macroeconomist Mark Levy discusses tariff war outcome scenarios.
Trump — 100 Days in a Single Chart
The behavior of Donald Trump in his first 100 days as president has raised the cost of borrowing for the entire array of all federal agencies and all arms of the US government.