Trying to Forecast the Price of Gold?
We examine some statistical evidence that may be helpful in estimating the future price of gold using a present set of variables.
Doing the Twist
These are the moves: More short-term T-bills. Shorten US Treasury debt maturity. Try to force interest rates lower.
Kotok Quick Take: Central Bank Attacks – Raising Our Voices, Tillis, Thune, & Warsh
Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair — fine, but the administration’s attacks on the Fed need to stop. Here’s my quick take.
K Is Not Just a Cereal
We thank Michael Drury, Chief Economist at McVean Trading, for permission to share some of his views on the K-shaped economy and the outlook. Discussion follows.
US-Venezuela Policy: Follow the Money
To understand some of the US-Venezuela policy, we must follow the money. Here’s the story as we see it today.
J.P. vs. J.P.
Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a long-term, publicly reviewed Fed building project and over Powell’s related testimony is dominating the headlines. We assess market reactions and implications.
A New Year: Looking Back, Looking Ahead
For me, 2025 was a year of accomplishments and change. Here’s to a year of navigating an eventful 2026 together!
SCOTUS Decision on Lisa Cook: Financial Market Impact?
We estimate the market-based pricing of outcomes of the forthcoming SCOTUS decision and its impact on interest rates and the term structure slope.
The Donroe Doctrine Part 2: The Maduro-Hezbollah Connection
The Donroe Doctrine is not only about oil. For the US, it is also about national security.
Venezuela: The Donroe Doctrine Part 1
The Trump Corollary, now the Donroe Doctrine, is shaping US policy toward the Americas. What is unfolding in Venezuela reveals its substance.