Post-election Analysis, China, Tariffs
On the day after the election, Kathleen Hays was kind enough to invite me to interview with my initial thoughts about the election outcome as we knew it to be then. I subsequently published a transcript of the interview and the link to Kathleen’s Substack.
North Korea, Russia, and History
On Sunday, October 27, 2024, I cited the evolution of history in the WW2 era, in the 1930s and the 1940s, and got a lot of responses (“A History Lesson?” https://kotokreport.com/a-history-lesson/). We thank readers for those responses.
One astute reader had a sensible question about my October 27th missive. He asked, how could Stalin’s divisions that he sent into Germany have been combat-trained against the Japanese when the dates don’t work?
A History Lesson?
This Sunday’s missive is about geopolitical risk and what may be leading to a war. IMO, we already have a “proxy” war. Did we learn anything from the 1930s? Is history “rhyming?”
Election, Options, Betting Markets
The presidential election betting has made headlines in a unique way in this 2024 election marathon. So has stock option trading. Some speculate that the two have become interrelated. Here’s some food for thought.
Milton!
The Climate Adaptation Center will be holding a conference at ground zero in Sarasota, at the University of South Florida Conference Center, November 14–15. It is now expected to be a blockbuster event.
A Middle East Story
In the context of a deeply troubled region in the world, this is a story of constructive cooperation among Muslims and Jews, Bedouin and Israeli partners, women and men.
3 Hurricanes Trigger Labor Shortage
Rebuilding, cleanup, mitigation, maintenance, infrastructure repairs in 7 states will require 100s of thousands of additional people working. We need to import more labor, not deport. Fix DACA now. U7 says Labor market still tight, just less so than Covid shock. Congress must act quickly and stop politicizing the national economy and threatening the future. Now here’s a study lesson for serious Nerds. Praise and thanks to historian Philipa Dunne for her excellent assistance.
FedNow
A rule of thumb is that when politics gets inserted into the management of your money, be very careful and watch the money.
We’ve seen that with ETFs like ACVF or ESGU or HKND or MAGA or PRAY or STRV or YALL, which have various alleged political agendas incorporated into their investment policies. And we’ve observed the remarkable and volatile trading in the stock DJT. I am not recommending nor endorsing any of these securities. Readers may research them and their price action and decide for themselves.
Senator John Thune
I personally favor Senator John Thune to succeed Mitch McConnell as leader of the Senate Republican Conference in the forthcoming Congress. Here’s why. Please note that this is my own view and not the position of any business or organization with which I have any affiliation.
Behind The Curve?
Today let’s consider why the Fed should always operate “behind the curve” (where there is data to rely on).
It is important to note that the yield curve is not inverted anymore. I’m ignoring the very short-term interest rates, which are now projected to fall two full percentage points over the Fed’s “dot plot” projection period. I’m looking at the range from 2 years to 30 years in the yield on US Treasury obligations, whether notes or bonds.
