Shoot-Out!
Hundreds of millions of people witnessed the recent shoot-out in the Oval Office. Among them, in the room, was a reporter from Russian media. Here are some takeaways.
Bird Flu, The Rat & The Flea
As H5N1 bird flu spreads across mammals and has now reached rats, we are reminded of Chapter 7 in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks. That chapter focuses on the Plague of Justinian in the Eastern Roman Empire, where plague (caused by the Yersinia pestis bacterium) spread with the range of infected oriental rat fleas.
Gold? Sovereign Wealth Fund
I believe a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is coming from Trump 2.0. It may have to trigger a huge change at the Fed, which might revalue the gold certificate to a $1 trillion asset on the Fed’s balance sheet. And then the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet would be a transfer of $1 […]
Tariff War Continues
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list.
Our New Book is Official
We are live with our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com). My co-authors and I have nearly five years invested in the effort. We appreciate the positive reviews the book has received so far. Here are two recent ones from independent reviewers:
Debt, Deficits, Cassandra!
Debt and deficits. Everywhere I look, read, listen, observe, or encounter in person or by text or by email, there are wannabe Cassandras predicting a calamity over debt and the deficit.
Tariffs: Oh, Canada!
“The only certainty in (fiscal, trade and monetary) policy, politics, in our capital markets, in our social lives and, even in sports, is the lack of certainty these days.” — Doug Kass
Tariffs
Trump 2.0 tariffs and our trading partners’ retaliations are taking shape. What can we expect? Today I offer my own macro perspective and some thoughts from others.
National Defense & Transition!
I wrote about America’s national defense on the Sunday before Trump 2.0 Inauguration Day (https://kotokreport.com/national-defense/). Many thanks to readers for their varied viewpoints and responses. Here are some additional observations.
Trump 2.0 & Healthcare?
In the US stock market, the healthcare sector is represented by the sector spider XLV. Here’s a recent pre-inauguration picture of the sector spider’s performance.
