The Fed and Rick Scott
Senator Rick Scott has attacked the Fed. Reader can decide — truth, fiction, or political hyperbole? We supply relevant facts.
Markets Discussion Series Part 1: Vol Shocks
Volatility trends since the Great Financial Crisis indicate that old assumptions may not be reliable.
COVID, Vax, RFK Jr.—What’s Next?
Public health policy changes have enormous implications, including economic ones.
The Bull Case?
There is a possible bullish stock market case for the Trump tariffs and other policy outcomes. Here’s a scenario; it’s not a forecast.
Healthcare in America
Does the healthcare sector go from growing to shrinking? Does it get better or worse?
President “Fiscal” and the Road Ahead
According to the CBO, President Trump’s numbers don’t add up. I discuss the deficit, the “Nifty 14,” the bond market, and the price of protectionism.
Inflation and the Fed
Is a positive “real” interest rate necessary? Let’s look at the data.
Anatomy of an Actual Trade
I offer an example (my opinion) of how possible market dysfunction has presented a bond trade opportunity to seize a market pricing anomaly.
Whalen and Kotok: Can History Light the Way?
R. Christopher Whalen’s Inflated details how America has navigated its eventful history using debt and inflation. What can we learn from the past as we consider what lies ahead?
Kotok Quick Take: Rick Newman on US Default Risk
Rick Newman reports on what a non-zero US default risk costs us. I offer my two-minute take.