The Bull Case?
There is a possible bullish stock market case for the Trump tariffs and other policy outcomes. Here’s a scenario; it’s not a forecast.
Healthcare in America
Does the healthcare sector go from growing to shrinking? Does it get better or worse?
President “Fiscal” and the Road Ahead
According to the CBO, President Trump’s numbers don’t add up. I discuss the deficit, the “Nifty 14,” the bond market, and the price of protectionism.
Inflation and the Fed
Is a positive “real” interest rate necessary? Let’s look at the data.
Anatomy of an Actual Trade
I offer an example (my opinion) of how possible market dysfunction has presented a bond trade opportunity to seize a market pricing anomaly.
Whalen and Kotok: Can History Light the Way?
R. Christopher Whalen’s Inflated details how America has navigated its eventful history using debt and inflation. What can we learn from the past as we consider what lies ahead?
Kotok Quick Take: Rick Newman on US Default Risk
Rick Newman reports on what a non-zero US default risk costs us. I offer my two-minute take.
Section 70302: A Poison Pill in the Big Beautiful Bill
Section 70302 of the Big Beautiful Bill targets the federal courts, with huge implications for individuals, businesses and fiduciaries of all types.
A Kotok Quick Take: ICE Operations in Tallahassee, FL
An ICE raid impacts individuals, families, businesses, and the economy.
Farley, Fishing, & Finnegan
We mull the economic impacts of pandemics and tariffdemics and the value of fishing trips.