Readers may recall that Maduro tried to officially annex Guyana and threatened a takeover by force. For that history, see “Guyana–Venezuela crisis (2023–2024),” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana–Venezuela_crisis_(2023–2024). Note that the development of offshore oil prospects in Guyana is now led by a three-company consortium, with American companies holding a 75% share.
The Trump administration’s action in Venezuela has diminished the Maduro-instigated military threat toward Guyana. The Trump policy known as the “Donroe Doctrine” is transactional and not ideological. If it succeeds, a positive oil supply shock is destined to occur, with benefits for the US. Those benefits may include a downward pressure on the oil price as supply expands in the American hemisphere. A lower oil price, in turn, means a downward pressure on inflation. There is a large capital investment opportunity for oil companies and related enterprises. There is competing price pressure (downward) for other forms of energy production like renewables on the one hand or coal on the other. Also, don’t be surprised if you see Trump take a US-government-owned equity stake in this process just as he did with Intel in the AI-chips deal.
Below is a report we have prepared for consideration. It is a partial report, and it reflects forecasts that are still problematic. The data is assembled from the sources listed (using Microsoft Copilot as the search engine), which doesn’t mean every detail is accurate, only that it is available.
The key point I want to make is this: The Donroe Doctrine is about transactional and economic elements as perceived by the administration and not about ideological evolution to one form of government versus another.
Additional suggested readings follow the report.
Comparative Analysis of Crude Oil Quality in the Americas (ex Canada)
Overview
Guyana’s offshore crude from the Stabroek Block continues to establish itself as one of the world’s most attractive emerging crude streams. Its light-to-medium sweet profile positions it competitively between ultra-light US shale and Brazil’s medium sweet pre-salt barrels, while being vastly different—operationally and economically—from Venezuela’s heavy/extra heavy sour grades. This report compares crude quality and refinery economics for Guyana, Brazil, Venezuela, Suriname, and US shale, relying on publicly available crude assays, regulator datasets, and upstream analysis sourced through the research links listed below.
Summary by Country
Guyana
Liza crude assays in Guyana confirm 31.9° API and 0.59% sulfur, placing Guyana’s light/medium sweet crude among the most refinery-efficient new supplies globally. In refinery economics, crude quality drives margins because lighter, sweeter oils require less energy and fewer upgrading units, and they yield more high-value products. Guyana’s light/medium sweet crude typically delivers strong gasoline, jet, and diesel yields with low desulfurization cost, giving it a higher net refining margin relative to heavier or sour crudes. Its high yields of middle distillates, low hydrotreating burden, and low sulfur penalties allow refiners to achieve Brent-like margins.
By 2035, Guyana is forecast by Rystad Energy to produce approximately 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), up from about 770,000 bpd in late 2025 as new FPSOs come online, positioning it among the world’s top offshore producers (late‑2025 production update, Rystad offshore outlook).
Brazil
Brazil’s pre-salt fields (Mero, Búzios, Tupi/Lula) produce 28–30° API, 0.3–0.7% medium sweet crude, slightly heavier than Guyana’s but still high quality, low sulfur, and comparatively clean and profitable. Brazil’s pre-salt gradesproduce robust diesel output and offer competitive margins, though requiring somewhat more energy and hydrotreating than Guyana’s barrels.
Brazil, driven by its expanding pre-salt fields, is expected to reach roughly 4.9 million bpd of crude by 2035, compared to around 3.4 million bpd in 2025, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy and EPE’s PDE‑2035 report.
Suriname
Suriname’s Block 58 discoveries show 27°–37° API light/medium sweet, low-sulfur crude—nearly identical to Guyana’s in refining characteristics and price potential. Staatsolie notes current onshore production near 17,000 bpd until offshore production comes online. Suriname’s emerging offshore crude mirrors Guyana’s yields and cost structure, suggesting nearly identical refining economics as production ramps up.
Suriname’s first major offshore project, GranMorgu, is approved and targeted for startup in 2028. Suriname is projected to exceed 200,000–300,000 bpd by the early 2030s, with combined offshore revenues expected to surpass $5 billion by 2035, well above its small 2025 onshore output.
US Shale
US Permian/Bakken crude grades at 40–50° API, <0.05% sulfur, reflect ultra-light, sweet, clean oil that is cheap to desulfurize. However, it is often too light for many refineries and for optimal diesel yields. It requires blending with heavier grades to restore refinery balance, so its refinery value is often limited by low diesel yields and the need for blending, which can compress net margins.
US shale production—after peaking in 2025 at around 13.4 million bpd of total US crude output—is expected to enter a structural plateau to 2035 as Tier‑1 drilling inventory depletes, with basin-level outcomes varying by price/productivity.
Venezuela
Venezuela’s extra-heavy Orinoco crude (API 8–13°, sulfur 2–4%) and heavy belts (API 25–32°) require diluent blending and upgrading, sharply raising hydrogen, energy, and catalyst use. Heavy to extra heavy sour crudeyields the lowest refinery margins due to high energy input, extensive upgrading, high sulfur removal costs, and large residual fractions that must be converted via expensive coking or hydrocracking.
Venezuela, currently producing roughly 0.8–1.0 million bpd in 2025, could recover to ~2.5 million bpd by 2035 under a political transition and large-scale reinvestment, according to JPMorgan analysis reported by Bloomberg, though this scenario requires substantial capital and a stable policy environment.
Sources
Guyana
“Liza Crude Summary Report” | ExxonMobil,
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/crude-oils/pdf/2024/liza.pdf“Oil production at 770,000 bpd offshore Guyana” | Guyana Standard,
https://www.guyanastandard.com/2025/10/13/oil-production-at-770000-bpd-offshore-guyana/“Guyana will be among the top five elite global offshore producers by 2035 – Rystad Energy” | Petroleum Management Programme, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guyana,
https://petroleum.gov.gy/article/guyana-will-be-among-the-top-five-elite-global-offshore-producers-by-2035-rystad-energy/
Brazil
“PPSA Oil Production” | PPSA, https://www.presalpetroleo.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Ebook-de-bolso-portfolio-PPSA-web-v3-alta.pdf
“Brazil could reach record oil and gas production by 2035” | Canal Solar,
https://canalsolar.com.br/en/pde-mme-oil-and-natural-gas-record/“Tupi oil field” | Wikipedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupi_oil_field
Suriname
“Despite Delays Suriname’s Oil Boom is Fast Becoming a Reality” | World Ports Org.,
https://www.worldports.org/suriname-shows-potential-to-become-next-oil-hot-spot-globaldata-says/“Transforming Suriname: The Economic Impact of Block 52” | Petroleum & Energy Insights,
https://petroleumenergyinsights.com/transforming-suriname-the-economic-impact-of-block-52/“A geological overview of the Suriname-Guyana Basin” | Staatsolie,
https://www.staatsolie.com/en/shi/geology/
US Shale
“Energy Indicators” | Dallas Fed,
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/indicators/2021/en2109“The End of Easy Oil: Strategic Risk Implications of the US Shale Plateau (2025–2035)” | Age of Transformation,
https://ageoftransformation.org/the-end-of-easy-oil-strategic-risk-implications-of-the-u-s-shale-plateau-2025-2035/
Venezuela
“US Invasion of Venezuela: Energy Market Disruption Analysis” | Discovery Alert, https://discoveryalert.com.au/venezuelan-oil-military-tensions-2025-energy-markets/
“Venezuelan Oil Faces Long Road to Lasting Recovery, Analysts Say” | Bloomberg,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/venezuela-oil-output-faces-long-and-risky-recovery-analysts-say
Further Reading
“A Venezuela oil revival could set up winners — and losers — in US energy” | Business Insider,
https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-oil-return-us-energy-winners-losers-shale-impact-2026-1?op=1“Everything there is to know about Venezuela’s oil (and why US companies are ready for it)” | Yahoo Finance,
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/everything-know-venezuela-oil-why-200831877.html“Venezuela’s Oil Renaissance Faces Several High Hurdles” | Bloomberg,
https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/venezuelas-oil-renaissance-faces-several-high-hurdles“Near a Refinery for Venezuelan Oil, US Residents Say: Please Buy Our Homes
| https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/climate/chevron-venezuela-mississippi-refinery.html“When Venezuelan oil comes to the US” | NY Times Climate Forward Email, February 5,
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render?campaign_id=54&emc=edit_clim_20260205&instance_id=170642&isViewInBrowser=true&nl=climate-forward&productCode=CLIM®i_id=79286813&segment_id=214835&sendId=214835&uri=nyt://newsletter/c01ed89d-f153-595a-907e-9f3b12dbdbb7&user_id=b84e74a0b3cfa572dcc051c355c61c4f
