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Government Shutdown

Government Shutdown?

The president meets with key congressional leaders this afternoon. Unless a last-minute resolution results, this shutdown will be different. We know about threatened mass firings. Note also that we may not have fresh official data from the federal government if there is a shutdown. That could include the Friday employment report, as Cumberland’s Chief Economist David Berson noted on Cumberland’s morning call today.

Here are my thoughts about this shutdown.

Housekeeping note re the Substack transition on October 1: If you are new to Substack, you’ll be asked to identify your interests. After that, you can take steps to ensure that Substack will not send you marketing emails about other Substack letters. Directions are here: https://support.substack.com/hc/en-us/articles/8119385168660-How-do-I-stop-receiving-emails-from-Substack.

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Is It a Market Correction or a Reallocation?

Is It a Market Correction or a Reallocation?

We ask if recent market volatility was a broad market correction or a reallocation within and among asset classes. Or is something else driving volatility because of disruption (AI, tariffs, wars, federal deficits)?

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