As we finalized this commentary for publication yesterday, AP News published this update:
“Live updates: Iranian gunboats fire on tanker in Strait of Hormuz as Tehran reimposes restrictions” | AP News,
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-18-2026
The updates continued: “India on Saturday summoned Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi after two Indian vessels were forced to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz following reports…”
“India summons Iran’s ambassador after Indian-flagged tankers shot at near Strait of Hormuz” | AP News,
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-18-2026#0000019d-a12e-db4a-a99d-efaef6200000
By the time this commentary reaches your inbox this Sunday morning, these updates will have been superseded, in rapid-fire fashion, by others.
In the wake of a ceasefire agreement that lasted less than 24 hours, we are reminded of the words Yogi Berra wrote on my baseball. Like everyone else, we strive to keep up.
Alongside that effort, we encourage readers to consider information and perspectives that constitute valuable navigational tools for a tumultuous time.
First, we recommend watching Michael Smerconish’s seven-minute discussion of Trump and Hormuz-Iran-War policymaking.
“Smerconish reacts: Is Trump acting crazy or playing a strategy?” | CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/11/politics/video/smerconish-reacts-is-trump-acting-crazy-or-playing-a-strategy
Next, John Mauldin opened his April 11–12 weekend missive promoting his annual Strategic Investment Conference with this discussion (an excerpt).
Right now, depending on which headline we read, the Strait of Hormuz is either “closed until further notice,” “halting tanker traffic,” or quietly letting selected ships slip through under a new set of unwritten rules. Analysts and TV commentators can’t even agree on whether 20% of the world’s seaborne oil is “shut in” or just “at risk.”
One research firm literally sent an analyst with a case full of recording gear and $15,000 in cash to the Strait itself. He rode under Iranian drones and patrol boats, got detained by the Omani Coast Guard, and came back with a simple conclusion: the Strait isn’t “open” or “closed.”
It turns out the Strait isn’t “open” or “closed” in any simple sense. Iran has set up a functional checkpoint and is improvising a pay‑to‑pass, case by case, on what route, and on what terms system. (John Mauldin, “How do we invest when Hormuz is blinking red?” Email, April 12, 2026)
Third, below is a graphic that shows the drop-off in Hormuz tanker and ship traffic.
https://x.com/JoshEakle/status/2042436909427740888;
hat tip to Barry Rithotz, “10 Sunday Reads” email letter, April 12.
Finally, spend a few minutes looking over the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) detailed breakdown of impact and response by country. The graphics are too long to reproduce here, but we give you a preview below — a snapshot taken on April 14.
So, one click. Take a look at this resource and decide how much more you want to see:
“2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker,” International Energy Agency (IEA), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/2026-energy-crisis-policy-response-tracker
Hat tip to Torsten Slok (Apollo) for sending out this link.
Kotok View
There are multiple scenarios. Examples:
- The Iranian regime changes its stance. IRGC does a policy shift and makes a “deal” with Trump. This is not likely, in my opinion. It would be a huge “win” for Trump if it happens.
- Negotiations fail. The kinetic war continues and expands. Houthis join as a second front; Saudis and other Gulf states engage. Israel pursues remnants of Hamas and Hezbollah. Other Iran-linked terrorist groups spread deadly mischief worldwide. Iran-linked groups in other Middle Eastern countries like Iraq open fronts where they can.
- The US escalates to undertake infrastructure destruction in Iran. Iran fragments. The Kurds enter the war as second front against IRGC. Other anti-IRGC factions within Iran attempt to fragment. The US recognizes a new Kurdish province within Iranian territory. Kurds in Iraq join Kurds in Iran. Q. What does Türkiye do?
- US forces invade Kharg Island. The US has executed precision attacks on Kharg’s military defenses, with 90+ military and missile facilities bombed. Oil operating infrastructure was purposefully not bombed. A successful mission transfers this key Iranian oil facility to US control. But at what cost?
Remember that the US has had these “red lines” and Iran has held firm in its stance. As I see it, the US cannot waver much without empowering Iran. See this excerpt from JINSA’s April13 update:
- In a statement sent to reporters on April 12, an unnamed American official listed all of the U.S. red lines in talks with Iran last weekend:
- Iran must halt all enrichment of uranium;
- All major enrichment plants must be taken apart;
- Iran must agree to a peace and security framework with regional allies;
- Iran must cease funding for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis;
- Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz in full, without tolls; and
- Highly enriched uranium (HEU) must be retrieved.
- In a post on X on April 12, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote that “Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war,” but when a Memorandum of Understanding was close, the Iranian negotiating team was faced with “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade” from the Americans.
(“Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion: 4/13/26 Update” | JINSA, https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/operations-epic-fury-and-roaring-lion-4-13-26-update/)
Conclusion
There are many other possible variations. We have no way to predict what will happen. To quote Yogi again, “The future ain’t what it used to be.”
Further Reading
I believe it is important to see the news as it originates in other places in the world. Here’s the English language version of Al Jazeera:
“Iran war live: IRGC says Hormuz closed until US blockade lifted” | Al Jazeera,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/18/iran-war-live-tehran-says-president-trump-made-false-claims-amid-talks
See also:
“How 50 days of the Iran war led to the loss of $50 billion worth of oil” | Reuters,
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-50-days-iran-war-led-loss-50-billion-worth-oil-2026-04-17/“Three Scenarios for the Gulf States After the Iran War” | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/04/gulf-states-gcc-iran-war-three-scenarios
“Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign Against Iran, Part I” | Institute for the Study of War (ISW),
https://understandingwar.org/research/uncategorized/applying-us-air-warfare-theory-and-doctrine-to-evaluate-the-campaign-against-iran-part-1“Iran Update Evening Special Report, April 10, 2026” | Critical Threats and ISW,
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-april-10-2026“Are oil prices really alarming?” | Labor Matters,
https://open.substack.com/pub/gadlevanon/p/are-oil-prices-really-alarming“Lessons learned in ’70s have made the US and world economies less vulnerable to oil shocks,” | AP News, https://apnews.com/article/oil-shocks-inflation-energy-stagflation-1970s-f12d886ce8af46862ad69be98f75a5d0
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