David Kotok offers insights and analysis on current economic and political issues and their potential impact on global financial markets. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV, and Bloomberg Radio, Fox Business, and other media.
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list.
We are live with our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com). My co-authors and I have nearly five years invested in the effort. We appreciate the positive reviews the book has received so far. Here are two recent ones from independent reviewers:
Debt and deficits. Everywhere I look, read, listen, observe, or encounter in person or by text or by email, there are wannabe Cassandras predicting a calamity over debt and the deficit.
We thank readers for their feedback on the January 26 Sunday Kotok Report, “Trump 2.0 and Healthcare?” (https://kotokreport.com/trump-2-0-healthcare/).
And, yes, the book — The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks — is finished and will be released on February 12. Details regarding preorders are updated at https://www.thefedandtheflu.com. Two recent reviews are out, at Kirkus Reviews and Readers’ Favorite.
“The only certainty in (fiscal, trade and monetary) policy, politics, in our capital markets, in our social lives and, even in sports, is the lack of certainty these days.” — Doug Kass
Trump 2.0 tariffs and our trading partners’ retaliations are taking shape. What can we expect? Today I offer my own macro perspective and some thoughts from others.
I wrote about America’s national defense on the Sunday before Trump 2.0 Inauguration Day (https://kotokreport.com/national-defense/). Many thanks to readers for their varied viewpoints and responses. Here are some additional observations.
In the US stock market, the healthcare sector is represented by the sector spider XLV. Here’s a recent pre-inauguration picture of the sector spider’s performance.
Readers, please note that this is my opinion alone.
I’m writing this in the midst of a continuously changing environment for the defense of the United States as the Biden regime transitions to the Trump 2.0 administration. Trump’s rhetoric (I hope that’s all it is) about military action in Panama or acquiring Greenland or intensifying tariff wars with our closest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, are happening in a globally diverse and rapidly changing world.
The California fires will end up setting records in billions in a catastrophe loss. On the East Coast a similar new record cost will continue to be revealed as the trifecta hurricane damages from Debby, Helene, and Milton continue to mount.
On the auspicious date of Friday the 13th of December 2024, I published “4 Stock Market Perspectives”. Readers are thanked for their comments. Today, let’s add to that discussion.
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Any charts provided here are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Information in charts has been obtained from third-party sources deemed to be reliable. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, David Kotok makes no representations about the accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. All content speaks only as of the date indicated.
