Insights and Reflections

The presidential election betting has made headlines in a unique way in this 2024 election marathon. So has stock option trading. Some speculate that the two have become interrelated. Here’s some food for thought. 

The Climate Adaptation Center will be holding a conference at ground zero in Sarasota, at the University of South Florida Conference Center, November 14–15. It is now expected to be a blockbuster event.

In the context of a deeply troubled region in the world, this is a story of constructive cooperation among Muslims and Jews, Bedouin and Israeli partners, women and men.

Rebuilding, cleanup, mitigation, maintenance, infrastructure repairs in 7 states will require 100s of thousands of additional people working. We need to import more labor, not deport. Fix DACA now. U7 says Labor market still tight, just less so than Covid shock. Congress must act quickly and stop politicizing the national economy and threatening the future.  Now here’s a study lesson for serious Nerds. Praise and thanks to historian Philipa Dunne for her excellent assistance. 

A rule of thumb is that when politics gets inserted into the management of your money, be very careful and watch the money.    

We’ve seen that with ETFs like ACVF or ESGU or HKND or MAGA or PRAY or STRV or YALL, which have various alleged political agendas incorporated into their investment policies.  And we’ve observed the remarkable and volatile trading in the stock DJT.   I am not recommending nor endorsing any of these securities.  Readers may research them and their price action and decide for themselves.

I personally favor Senator John Thune to succeed Mitch McConnell as leader of the Senate Republican Conference in the forthcoming Congress. Here’s why. Please note that this is my own view and not the position of any business or organization with which I have any affiliation.

Today let’s consider why the Fed should always operate “behind the curve” (where there is data to rely on). 

It is important to note that the yield curve is not inverted anymore. I’m ignoring the very short-term interest rates, which are now projected to fall two full percentage points over the Fed’s “dot plot” projection period. I’m looking at the range from 2 years to 30 years in the yield on US Treasury obligations, whether notes or bonds.

First, the Kotok Rule is “Admit you don’t know when you don’t know.” Stop the publishing alarmist predictions about a coming catastrophe. All those who predict turmoil and outrageous attention-getting outcomes are simply guessing. Nostradamus was NOT a financial or economic analyst. 

Readers replied to our two-part series about Project 2025 and its impact on climate mitigation and the environment. Not a single reader emailed with a positive statement about the Heritage Foundation or about Project 2025. None defended this radicalized version from what used to be a conservative think tank.

There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview. 

We wish our readers a pleasant Labor Day weekend.   Please take a few minutes for a serious commentary and then freely share it with friends, if you are so inclined.  They are invited to sign up for free and receive my future commentaries.

Bill Kennedy is a regular invitee in Maine and the Chair of the Global Interdependence Center (https://www.interdependence.org/). He published this excellent summary of our gathering in Maine. I thank him for permission to share it with readers. Here’s Bill Kennedy about his experience in Maine.