I sent my friend and fishing buddy Chris Whalen a dozen charts I’ve been mulling, and we convened recently to talk about them and what they can tell us about how the market prices the risk of a US default. Taking the discussion a step further, we delved into the connection between US credit default swaps (CDS) and the price of gold. (Gold is the subject of a new book Chris is working on.) We looked at evidence that monthly CDS prices have some capacity to forecast the price of gold, and we discussed the role gold plays (and doesn’t play) in an investor’s portfolio. Is now a good time to hold gold? What do CDS prices tell us?
Chris published our conversation at The Institutional Risk Analyst yesterday. Here’s the link:
I’d like to thank Chris for our stimulating discussion, one among many over the last 25 years.
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