I ask Kotok Report readers a direct question: IF you set aside the like Trump vs hate Trump debate, if you ignore the “who said what or when” hyperbole, if you only focus on outcomes that we can see, would you prefer a wounded Iran with a likely diminished nuclear capability, at the temporary expense of the oil shock? Or would you instead prefer an Iran with undiminished nuclear capabilities with the benefit of no oil shock? That’s the fundamental question.
By playing the Hormuz card, Iran has already started its decline in power. I fully agree with Peter Boockvar’s Wednesday morning post:
“Iran’s weapon of mass disruption will be no longer, no matter what happens in short term.” | The Boock Report,
https://peterboockvar.substack.com/p/irans-weapon-of-mass-disruption-will
Reading list
In a tweet yesterday Giacoma Prandelli offered a partial inventory of products impacted by an oil shock.
https://themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-happens-after-trumps-deadline?r=tf0g2&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
The scope of an oil shock is wider than most people realize. The following links expand on Prandelli’s list of impacted products.
“The Strait of Hormuz crisis affects more than just oil. Here are 9 other commodities” | World Economic Forum,
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/04/beyond-oil-lng-commodities-impacted-closure-hormuz-strait/“The Definitive List of 365 Products Made from Oil / Petroleum” | Bad Ass Work Gear, https://badassworkgear.com/list-of-products-made-from-oil-petroleum/
“How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger a Global Fertilizer Shock” | OilPrice.com,
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-the-Strait-of-Hormuz-Crisis-Could-Trigger-a-Global-Fertilizer-Shock.html
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