First, we want to wish all readers worldwide, from Sydney to Singapore to Sarasota, a peaceful and healthy and successful new year.
We start this yearend/new year-forward commentary with a link to a two-minute YouTube summary about the term “lame duck.” The video dates to the ending of the Biden term.
“What Is A Lame Duck President? Phrase Explained Amid Trump/Biden 2020 Election” | Newsweek,
In 2025, Trump 2.0 came into office with almost four years to prepare a strategy and implement it. The pace has been blistering. It has reflected many aspects of the Project 2025 plan drafted under the leadership of Russell Vought, who is now the Trump 2.0 budget director.
Trump 2.0 operates under the Unitary Executive Theory (UET), which translates into concentrated executive power. You can see the arguments that Trump 2.0 lawyers use in their continuing defense of Trump 2.0 policy as many executive orders are challenged in the court system. Remember, the UET is a different operating system of governance than we have been accustomed to. We had three branches with equal power, able to provide checks and balances.
Under Unitary Executive Theory, there is no lame duck status that develops in the White House as Trump’s term advances. The president operates at will and litigates later. He practices an industrial policy, including the use of tariffs; he intervenes in markets with a heavy hand; he negotiates government ownership stakes in private companies (example: Intel); and he tests the limits of power as much as possible in litigation over every dispute.
President Trump now has the largest law firm in the world at his disposal — the Department of Justice. For a litigious real estate developer, the DOJ is a source of executive power. You can see this continually in the reports of DOJ actions that are made public. When he was a private citizen, Trump learned from the infamous lawyer Roy Cohn, who served as a mentor in legal matters. Roy Cohn’s rules for winning were famously distilled in the dialogue of the 2024 biographical drama The Apprentice:
- Attack. Attack. Attack.
- Admit nothing; deny everything.
- No matter what happens… you claim victory, and never admit defeat.
Rifts in Trump’s MAGA base don’t curb the intensity of his use of executive orders. One can argue that they intensify their use instead. DJT’s falling popularity according to recent polls have not changed the administration’s strategy. Neither has infighting (reflected in Susie Wiles’ quotes) or departures (Elise Stefanik is a good example) and/or MAGA media stalwarts infighting (Tucker Carlson versus Ben Shapiro). Mike Pence’s initiative and the exit of staff from Heritage to Pence’s think tank, Advancing American Freedom, constitutes a huge development and a work in progress, in my opinion. But regardless of any of that or all of it together, this presidential duck is not lame.
Unitary Executive Theory includes acting now (executive orders) and litigating later. That explains its prolific usage by DT 2.0. Here’s a Pew Research discussion of executive order usage. In Trump’s 2.0 first year, E.O. issuance has exceeded that in all four years of his first term. His pace of E.O. issuance has been exceeded only by Franklin Roosevelt during the World War 2 period. See
“Trump’s number of executive orders surpasses first term”| Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/12/16/trump-has-already-issued-more-executive-orders-in-his-second-term-than-in-his-first/
Here’s the full list:
“2025 Donald J. Trump Executive Orders” | Federal Register, https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2025
The counterbalance to the Unitary Executive Theory lies in the Congress’ willingness and ability to assert its constitutional role. But Speaker Mike Johnson demonstrates a continuing commitment to serve as a DT 2.0 ally. Johnson is a weakened speaker with a very narrow margin of power. That is why the use of “discharge petitions” is reaching the highest level in nearly a half century. Axios reported on the inventory of such on December 17th:
Discharge petitions have been around for decades and have been mostly seen as a ‘Hail Mary.’ But recently, they’ve become more of a QB sneak, to mostly positive results.
‘The success rate for discharge petitions this year is mind-blowing,’ Sarah Binder, professor of political science at George Washington University told Axios.
By the numbers: Seven discharge petitions filed in the past two years received the 218 signatures needed for a House vote, according to data collected by Axios.
Prior to that, only seven petitions received all 218 votes in the previous 40 years.
So, the 2026 outlook, I would suggest, is driven by a strong executive wielding power, and the lame duck characterization is really applicable to Speaker Johnson and the House of Representatives. That means a wide range of potential outcomes and limited predictability. Outcomes range from “peace breaks out” to “warfare enlarges.” Economic possibilities range from lower inflation with slowing growth to higher inflation and a slowdown or recession. Accelerating “real growth” is always possible but not too likely as the labor force is now stagnant. That is what happens when the immigrant population shrinks by an amount estimated as high as 2.5 million people. Remember, AI productivity gains are technology-intensive, not labor-intensive.
Predictive uncertainty and ranges of probabilities are unhelpful, in my opinion. Why? We have a power-concentration executive who appears to be flailing when viewed by his critics but is judged to be persistently proceeding when observed by his supporters. You can see the difference when you look at his midnight screeds versus those that are professionally written for him.
In America, Trump 2.0 continues to face an economic headwind for two reasons. The first, and now a critical item, is the failing policies in healthcare (RFK, Jr and his cabal are attacking 18% of our GDP, which employs 22.5 million people). Simultaneously, millions of Americans face healthcare premium increases that will hit many hard.
Second, the nation’s labor force is under attack by Stephen Miller and his cabal on deportation, immigration, and an applied policy of fear. Labor force reductions impact not only healthcare but also agriculture, construction, and hospitality and services.
For details see
“The Importance of Immigrant Labor to the US Economy” | Center for Migration Studies, https://cmsny.org/importance-of-immigrant-labor-to-us-economy/
“More industries want Trump’s help hiring immigrant labor after farms get a break” | Stateline, https://stateline.org/2025/12/03/more-industries-want-trumps-help-hiring-immigrant-labor-after-farms-get-a-break
“Trump’s Immigration Raids Worsen Construction’s $10.8 Billion Labor Shortage” | Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2025/06/16/trumps-immigration-raids-worsen-constructions-108-billion-labor-shortage
So, we enter 2026 with the economic K. K is a bifurcated economy that may show GDP growth and labor force pressures at the same time.
The K-shaped economy depicts the increasing and concentrating wealth in the upper branch of the K; they are the ones who are getting a tax cut. I’m one of them. Meanwhile the downward branch of the K is suffering, especially so in healthcare and inflation effects. The pressure on that demographic cohort is increasing.
In my view, Trump’s executive political power is not fading as the shadow of his elective “lame duckness” grows. Recent election outcomes (like the new female Democratic mayor of Miami, a 30-year “red city”) support that view. Another example is Indiana. Trump received a major setback from the Indiana Republican leadership, which publicly said “No” to him on his gerrymandering initiative. Remember, this is in “red state” Indiana.
Here’s the sobering story about how a political failure occurred in Indiana. The lobbying arm of the right-wing Heritage Institute, Heritage Action, posted on social media that
President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders: if the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state. Roads will not be paved. Guard bases will close. Major projects will stop. These are the stakes, and every NO vote will be to blame.
Indiana Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith confirmed that the Trump administration was “VERY clear” about this. Yet the Indiana Republican leadership said “No” to Trump. They refused to be threatened.
Now, let’s see what happens in 2026. In a midterm election year, the lame duck phase of second-term presidencies generally arrives in all forms. Close your eyes and imagine the speech Marjorie Taylor Greene may deliver to a large auditorium in South Bend, Indiana, when she is a private citizen (after Jan. 5). And Speaker Johnson is a convenient target, along with Trump.
Of course, the president states repeatedly that he is executing perfectly and faithfully the oath of his office to the Constitution of the United States in all respects. Here are his own words posted on his social media account on Tuesday night, December, 9th.
There has never been a President that has worked as hard as me! My hours are the longest, and my results are among the best. I’ve stopped Eight Wars, saving many millions of lives in the process, created the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country, brought Business back into the United States at levels never seen before, rebuilt our Military, created the Largest Tax Cuts and Regulation Cuts, EVER, closed our open and very dangerous Southern Border, when previous Administrations were unable to do so, and created an ‘aura’ around the United States of America that has led every Country in the World to respect us more than ever before. In addition to all of that, I go out of my way to do long, thorough, and very boring Medical Examinations at the Great Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, seen and supervised by top doctors, all of whom have given me PERFECT Marks—Some have even said they have never seen such Strong Results. I do these Tests because I owe it to our Country. In addition to the Medical, I have done something that no other President has done, on three separate occasions, the last one being recently, by taking what is known as a Cognitive Examination, something which few people would be able to do very well, including those working at The New York Times, and I ACED all three of them in front of large numbers of doctors and experts, most of whom I do not know. I have been told that few people have been able to ‘ace’ this Examination and, in fact, most do very poorly, which is why many other Presidents have decided not to take it at all. Despite all of this, the time and work involved, The New York Times, and some others, like to pretend that I am ‘slowing up,’ am maybe not as sharp as I once was, or am in poor physical health, knowing that it is not true, and knowing that I work very hard, probably harder than I have ever worked before. I will know when I am ‘slowing up,’ but it’s not now! After all of the work I have done with Medical Exams, Cognitive Exams, and everything else, I actually believe it’s seditious, perhaps even treasonous, for The New York Times, and others, to consistently do FAKE reports in order to libel and demean ‘THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.’ They are true Enemies of the People, and we should do something about it. They have inaccurately reported on all of my Election Results and, in fact, were forced to apologize on much of what they wrote. The best thing that could happen to this Country would be if The New York Times would cease publication because they are a horrible, biased, and untruthful ‘source’ of information. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Readers may fact check this and his other posts for themselves.
Here’s the famous Trump interview with Politico’s Dasha Burns. I strongly recommend that readers take the time to see and hear it, for two reasons. Burns never lost her cool and never got ruffled. And Trump was at his quotational “Trump Live” best.ß
“President Donald Trump” | The Conversation,
If you prefer to read the interview instead, try this source:
“Full transcript: POLITICO’s interview with Donald Trump” | Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/09/donald-trump-full-interview-transcript-00681693
Lastly, let’s close with a link to the famous Howard Marks memo, in case you haven’t read it.
“Is It a Bubble?” Oaktree Capital, https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble
Whatever your opinion of Trump’s performance, a tipping point into lame duck status has yet to occur as we segue from 2025 to 2026.
Under the Unitary Executive Theory things change, which is my point. Trump is not lame in his executive position as long as he can do nearly anything he wants to do and successfully invoke national security under present law. SCOTUS would have to rule on the limits to executive authority’s invoking national security in order for there to be restraint. Congress would have to opt out of its own self-imposed lame duck status and step up to provide its constitutionally required checks and balances. So will 2026 be a presidential lame duck year? It won’t start that way (except, perhaps, for those serving in Congress). We’ll see.
We will be back next year, “Good Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.” Please travel safely this holiday season, and best wishes for the New Year.
