In yesterday’s commentary, which was prepared earlier in the week, I proposed looking at the estimated tariff shock as equivalent to a new $2/gallon gas tax.
As new tariff announcements have been made through this week, however, that estimate now appears to be too low.
I am traveling to Leen’s Lodge for Camp Kotok next week. I paused yesterday in Bucksport, Maine, looking across the water at Fort Knox (a Civil War-era fort), to comment on the evolving tariff shock in a Kotok Quick Take.
No one can forecast the outcome in the short term. Guess? Yes. Multiple scenarios? Yes. Forecast with confidence? No! But there is history for guidance.
In this update, we survey the implications of RFK Jr.’s leadership in US public health.
A regional war that includes existential risks is underway. Outcomes evolve. All predictions are problematic.
We ask if recent market volatility was a broad market correction or a reallocation within and among asset classes. Or is something else driving volatility because of disruption (AI, tariffs, wars, federal deficits)?
David would love to hear from you. Please Feel free to reach out and send an email.