In yesterday’s commentary, which was prepared earlier in the week, I proposed looking at the estimated tariff shock as equivalent to a new $2/gallon gas tax.
As new tariff announcements have been made through this week, however, that estimate now appears to be too low.
I am traveling to Leen’s Lodge for Camp Kotok next week. I paused yesterday in Bucksport, Maine, looking across the water at Fort Knox (a Civil War-era fort), to comment on the evolving tariff shock in a Kotok Quick Take.
Three tales of sharp teeth and long fights—but first, a history lesson from Vernon Jones
There’s an elephant in the room; it’s influencing inflation, the Fed balance sheet, federal fiscal policy, and the Fed’s monetary policy discussions.
With a target of 2% inflation, this morning’s PCE report weighs heavily, adding more dimension to the inflation problem evolving in the United States. “Six
Please consider the evidence with an open mind and draw your own conclusion.
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