The political term “October surprise” was coined by William Casey when he served as the campaign manager for Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign. Casey used the phrase during the 1980 election because he feared that incumbent President Jimmy Carter would negotiate a last-minute release of the American hostages held in Iran and use that major win to swing the election. Today, the phrase describes any sudden, unexpected news event late in a political campaign that can change the results of an election.
I can imagine several possible October surprises.
1. An agreement opening the Strait of Hormuz
Ironically, Iran may repeat as the catalyst, this time with an agreement that would really reopen the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It is under discussion. Given Trump on the political defensive and the Middle East War expanding with Houthi attacks on Saudia Arabia, Iran has the stronger political position for negotiating with Trump. Note that Iran follows a teaching with religious origins: “When you’re weak, agree; when you are stronger, renegotiate.” This is a paraphrase.
After the midterms, a lame-duck Trump is increasingly irrelevant and potentially even more dangerous. Trump’s testosterone-pumped War Secretary Pete Hegseth is an albatross around every Republican’s neck right now. One GOP Congressman, Massie of Kentucky, who has nothing to lose now, has introduced an impeachment motion on Hegseth. Speaker Johnson pulled the House agenda to avoid a vote. Rest assured, Massie will return with that issue during the lame duck session. But lame duck surprises are after October and will have their own fireworks.
We polled attendees in Maine and asked about five cabinet officers, including Hegseth. Please remember that the folks polled are in the money-finance arena and are “centers-of-influence” in many instances. I repolled again a few days ago. The results as of September end of month are below.
2. A constructive trade deal with Canada
Another surprise would be a trade deal settlement with Canada. Cancel all tariffs on both sides. Open the border and stop the crazy theatrics. Can Trump do it? Yes. Would he? That’s another question. Would Carney agree, now? He might if Trump would stop insulting what was our closest ally and closest trading partner. Canadians and Americans who are cross-border partners and reliable friends and intertwined families would like to get past this offensive Trump policy. Along with his 2:00 AM screeds, Trump’s use of the Smoot-Hawley Section 338 tariffs was and is a disaster. It threatens election outcomes for many Republicans in multiple states.
3. A combo
That two-fer of an Iran settlement and a Canada settlement, as I see it, is the strongest thing that Trump could do to reverse his continually declining polling approval numbers. It might reverse the growing anti-Trump, blue-wave-coming sentiment. Note that betting markets are pricing over a 60% chance of a Democratic flip of both the House and Senate. That probability was under 20% at the beginning of the year.
Barring an October surprise, either or both of which would require humility and backtracking from Trump, November looks more and more like a probable setback for Republicans, and they know it.
Note how Republican candidates are running from Trump. For example, in the Florida Governor’s race, Republican Byron Donalds’ campaign removed references to Trump from Donalds’ website but then backtracked, identifying him once again as a “Trump-endorsed candidate for Florida Governor” after the changes came to President Trump’s attention via media reports. In the congressional district where I reside, Republican Greg Steube no longer mentions his previous Trump accolades in his weekly emails. In the past, he proudly described his Mar a Lago credentials. He claims to be a 100% conservative; but on Trump, Steube has gone radio silent.
Are there other possible October surprises? Oh, sure. Today we have examined two policy drivers of painful inflation over which the president has considerable control.
President Trump’s China initiative is another potential example of an October surprise, though the immediate lifting of current economic pain would be more likely to sway voters than a longer-term deal with China might. Richard Nixon used the opening up of relations with his China visit organized by Henry Kissinger. The optics of the political situation are powerful while the actual situation and the results or lack of same are revealed after the election.
See “President Xi announced an invitation for 100,000 young Americans to visit China for exchanges and study in the coming five years.”
Both History.com and The Week offer excellent overviews of past October surprises.
“7 ‘October Surprises’ That Disrupted US Presidential Elections” | History.com
“The most notable October surprises” | The Week
We were curious, however, to see an accounting of all October surprises since Eisenhower. That report follows:
October Surprises: A List
The history of US presidential elections features numerous “October Surprises” — major news disclosures, scandals, or global events occurring late in the campaign cycle that have the potential to alter the course of the election. [1, 2]
Starting with the reelection of Dwight D. Eisenhower, here is a chronological list of the most notable October surprises in American political history:
1950s – 1970s
- 1956 (Suez Crisis & Hungarian Revolution): Just days before the election, two concurrent international crises broke out — the Soviet invasion of Hungary and the joint British-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt. These global threats ultimately benefited incumbent President Dwight D. Eisenhower, as voters rallied around an experienced commander-in-chief. [1]
- 1964 (The Walter Jenkins Arrest): Walter Jenkins, a top aide to President Lyndon B. Johnson, was arrested in a Washington DC YMCA for disorderly conduct involving another man. While a major personal and political scandal, it was quickly overshadowed by major international news, including the removal of Nikita Khrushchev from power in the Soviet Union and China’s first nuclear test. [1]
- 1968 (The Vietnam Bombing Halt): Just days before the election, President Lyndon B. Johnson announced a total halt to the bombing of North Vietnam to kickstart peace talks. While intended to boost Democrat Hubert Humphrey, secret efforts by the Richard Nixon campaign helped convince South Vietnam to hold out, neutralizing the announcement’s impact. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- 1972 (“Peace is at Hand”): On October 26, twelve days before Election Day, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger announced at a White House press conference that “peace is at hand” in Vietnam. This declaration essentially sealed a landslide victory for incumbent Richard Nixon. [1, 2, 3]
1980s – 1990s
- 1980 (The Hostage Negotiation & Coining of the Term): Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager, William Casey, popularized the phrase “October surprise” due to fears that incumbent Jimmy Carter would secure a last-minute release of the 52 American hostages in Iran. No release happened before Election Day, severely damaging Carter’s reelection bid. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- 1992 (The Weinberger Indictment): Just four days before the election, a federal grand jury indicted former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger for his role in the Iran-Contra scandal. The indictment contradicted incumbent President George H.W. Bush’s claims that he was “out of the loop,” halting his late-campaign momentum against Bill Clinton. [1, 2]
2000s – 2010s
- 2000 (George W. Bush’s DUI Revelation): Five days before one of the closest elections in history, reporters revealed that Texas Governor George W. Bush had been arrested for driving under the influence (DUI) in Maine in 1976. Though it depressed turnout among some conservative voters, Bush narrowly won the presidency.
- 2004 (The Osama bin Laden Video): Less than a week before the election, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden released a videotaped address mocking President George W. Bush and warning Americans against voting for him. Democratic challenger John Kerry later stated the video froze his momentum and shifted voters back toward the incumbent.
- 2008 (The Global Financial Collapse): While the crisis began unfolding in mid-September with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the first week of October saw a brutal 18% drop in the Dow Jones and catastrophic job loss numbers. Voters largely blamed the ruling Republican party, helping Barack Obama build a decisive lead over John McCain.
- 2012 (Hurricane Sandy): A massive superstorm devastated portions of the East Coast just one week before the election. The natural disaster forced campaigns to pause, allowing incumbent Barack Obama to project leadership alongside local officials like Republican Governor Chris Christie, shifting focus away from challenger Mitt Romney.
- 2016 (A Dual Surprise): The 2016 election featured a rare double bombshell. First, the “Access Hollywood” tape was released on October 7, showing Donald Trump making lewd and inappropriate comments about women. Then, on October 28 (just 11 days before the election), FBI Director James Comey notified Congress that the agency was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
2020s
- 2020 (Trump’s COVID-19 Hospitalization): On October 2, President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19 and was subsequently hospitalized at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. The event refocused the final stretch of the election entirely on the pandemic response.
- 2024 (Rally Remarks & External Crises): While the 2024 campaign experienced a historic summer upheaval, October was defined by consecutive hurricanes (Helene and Milton) that politicized federal emergency responses, alongside offensive jokes made by a comedian about Puerto Rico at a high-profile Trump campaign rally late in the month. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Further Suggested Reading
“October Surprise 2026: Scenarios That Could Shift the Midterms” | USPollingData
“October Surprise” | Wikipedia
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