Assad and company are now with his sponsor, asylum granting Putin (nickname is Putler), in Moscow.
“There is no plan yet for how to rule or control the country. What happens in Damascus, which is pretty far west, has a limited amount to do with what happens in Aleppo, and certainly nothing to do with what happens out on the Iraqi border or down south near Jordan. All of that is going to be up for grabs, and there are a lot of different actors, including the Islamic State, which is present and has been resurgent there in the last couple of years.”
(“Morning Briefing: Europe Edition, Tuesday Briefing: Joy and uncertainty in Syria,” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/briefing/tuesday-briefing.html)
“Mapping the overthrow of Assad’s Syria,” https://www.reuters.com/graphics/SYRIA-SECURITY/MAPS/myvmbxdgwpr/. Reuters provides a superb map and details. I recommend taking a few minutes to review it.
Here are some bullets.
1. Most important to the Western alliance is the issue of neutralizing or eliminating the Russian naval base at Tartus: https://www.google.com/maps/search/Tartus%E2%80%8E+russian+base/@34.8988823,35.8572829,14z/data=!3m1!4b1?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIwNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D. Most important for Putin is keeping it.
2. And there’s the Russian airbase at Latakia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmeimim_Air_Base. For Putin, it is a critical transit stop between Africa and Russia. For Iran it is an air corridor delivery route to Hezbollah. For the Western alliance, it is a target.
3. The results of the Assad family history of murder and poisoning and use of chemical weapons is being continuously revealed. Father Assad and his son Assad have killed, tortured, maimed thousands of their citizens. Older folks may remember how Assad the father killed more than 20,000 of his own citizens at Hama many years ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Hama_massacre.
4. Diverse factions are in control of portions of Syria. Remember that Syria was a creation of the Sykes-Picot Agreement after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Here’s the history of how Syria and the “Levant” came into being: https://www.britannica.com/event/Sykes-Picot-Agreement. Note that this was the original agreement which created Palestine.
Summary: The Sykes-Picot Agreement was a secret agreement between Britain and France in 1916 to divide the Ottoman Empire’s Arab territories after World War I.
France would control Lebanon and have indirect control of Syria, as well as southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq.
Britain would control Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Egypt, and a small area including Haifa and Acre.
Palestine would be under international control.
Imperial Russia would take Turkish Armenia.
Italy would take some Turkish territory.
Examine the full history and one quickly sees why the Middle East has been in turmoil since the Ottoman Empire collapsed.
For now, there is one compelling issue. The dangerous alliance of Moscow-Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi-Hamas and their other proxies has been dealt a series of defeats and setbacks. Meanwhile, the opening for the Abraham Accords implementation is at hand. I expect the Trump administration to pursue that early in their regime (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords).
Are they diplomatic enough to succeed? Is there the will to make the Mediterranean free of Putin’s Russian pressure? And what about the head of the snake, Iran?
At this moment there is no likely impact on oil or energy markets. Remember, America is now producing 13.5 million barrels a day and is the world’s largest producer. And now we may get passage of the budget portion of the defense authorization that has been repeatedly delayed by the nonsense in the House of Representatives.
More will be revealed.
