Since the November 2024 presidential election, a distinct, quantifiable positive correlation has emerged between President Donald Trump’s political approval ratings and the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT). DJT appears to be operating strictly as a “meme stock” and as a direct proxy for Trump’s political capital rather than as a reflection of financial fundamentals. DJT’s price action has mirrored the steady erosion of the president’s second-term approval. Public support fell from a post-election high of 54% to a historical second-term low of 34%–37% by May 2026. Coincidentally, DJT’s equity price collapsed from the mid-$30s into single digits [Gallup News, Pew Research Center]. This report synthesizes polling data, equity pricing, and corporate insider liquidations to map this decline. As we begin, two charts tell the story in visual form.
Whether the polling is done by CBS/YouGov (above) or by Fox News or PBS/Marist (see links below), Trump’s approval rating regarding the economy in general has sunk to second term lows as more Americans struggle in an economy shaped by tariffs, immigration policy, war, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Fox News poll: Most rate the economy negatively, including half of Republicans” | MSN,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fox-news-poll-most-rate-the-economy-negatively-including-half-of-republicans/ar-AA25UHAZ“Trump sinks to his lowest approval rating ever on #1 issue for voters: New [PBS/Marist] poll” | Yahoo! News,
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-sinks-lowest-approval-rating-205901956.html
Chronological Alignment: Approval Tracking vs. Equity Performance
The table below maps the direct alignment between President Trump’s public standing and the valuation of DJT equity across four distinct phases of his second administration.
Key Analytics Observations:
- The Post-Election Transition Bump: Early Emerson College Polling graphics from late 2024 captured the maximum point of leverage for both public optimism and DJT valuation.
- The 2025 Divergence Crossover: Charting from The Economist Tracker illustrates the exact operational pivot where negative sentiment crossed over positive sentiment. Once disapproval became the dominant metric, DJT’s downward trajectory accelerated.
- Erosion of the Base: While 78% of Trump’s core 2024 voters still express approval, that baseline is down from 83% in early 2025 [Pew Research Center]. This minor fracture in the political base has triggered outsized panic among retail stock investors, who represent the core buying volume of DJT equity.
The Amplifying Effect of High Beta
The symbiotic relationship between the president’s political standing and DJT equity is intensified by the stock’s exceptionally high beta coefficient. Beta measures an asset’s volatility relative to the broader market, where a beta of 1.0 indicates an asset moves in lockstep with the market. Throughout late 2025 and early 2026, DJT’s beta has routinely fluctuated between 3.5 and 4.2, making it one of the most volatile large-cap equities on the NASDAQ. This hyper-reactivity means that when macroeconomic pressures or shifts in political sentiment create minor ripples in the broader market, DJT reacts with outsized, exponential swings. Because the stock is unanchored by institutional stability or traditional valuation metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, its high beta acts as a financial megaphone. It transforms moderate contractions in Trump’s public approval into aggressive, multi-percentage point selloffs on the trading floor, leaving investors exposed to severe capital erosion.
Volume Surges and Event-Driven Trading
This high-beta volatility is fundamentally catalyzed by massive trading volume spikes surrounding major political announcements and administrative events. While DJT’s baseline daily volume has steadily decayed alongside its price, key political inflection points—such as the escalation of tensions in Iran, sudden tariff proclamations on Truth Social, or the release of critical quarterly polling data—trigger sudden torrents of liquidity. During these event windows, daily trading volume frequently surges to 3 to 5 times its 30-day moving average, occasionally exceeding 30 million shares traded in a single session. This rapid influx of capital is overwhelmingly driven by high-frequency algorithmic trading systems and momentum-driven retail investors who utilize the stock as a hyper-reactive vehicle for short-term speculation. Because these volume spikes are detached from any underlying corporate development or revenue growth, they amplify erratic price discovery, causing sharp intraday swings that permanently reset the stock’s baseline valuation in direct response to the president’s daily political fortunes.
SEC Insider Liquidations Post-Inauguration
As the stock’s correlation shifted from election-odds speculation to real-world governance sentiment, corporate executives and board members liquidated their equity positions. SEC Form 4 filings reveal major selloffs occurred during the initial May 2025 drop and accelerated into a coordinated block in March 2026:
Coordinated Corporate Block Sale (March 4, 2026)
As DJT equity hovered perilously close to the $10 line ($10.89 average execution price), corporate leadership executed a synchronized liquidation:
- Devin G. Nunes (CEO, President, & Chairman): Liquidated shares for a total value of $513,000.
- Vladimir Novachki (Chief Technology Officer): Liquidated shares for a total value of $123,000.
- Scott Glabe (General Counsel & Secretary): Liquidated shares for a total value of $98,400.
- Phillip Juhan (CFO & Treasurer): Liquidated shares for a total value of $57,800.
Historical Post-Inauguration Executive Dispositions
- Scott Glabe (General Counsel):
- Sept 11, 2025: Sold 30,016 shares at $16.98 per share ($509,645), divesting most unrestricted holdings.
- May 14, 2025: Executed mass liquidations of 56,700+ shares between $26.41 and $27.43 (~$1.50 million).
- Devin G. Nunes (CEO):
- May 14, 2025: Divested 59,483 shares at an average of $26.42–$27.42 (~$1.57 million).
- Phillip Juhan (CFO):
- May 14, 2025: Sold 37,438 shares at prices scaling up to $27.78 (~$1.02 million).
- Eric Swider (Director):
- Nov 17, 2025: Sold 5,200 shares at $10.59 per share ($55,083).
- Aug 29, 2025: Sold 5,000 shares at $17.61 per share ($88,074).
- June 10, 2025: Sold 8,500 shares at $21.41 per share ($181,999).
(Note: SEC documentation indicates that portions of the May 2025 liquidations were structured as automatic “sell-to-cover” transactions to settle executive tax obligations related to equity vesting.)
Conclusion
The data show that DJT does not trade on traditional enterprise value, platform active-user growth, or ad revenue. Instead, it functions as a highly reactive sentiment index tracking Donald Trump’s political fortunes. Because his platform’s viability is intrinsically tied to his personal relevance, any contraction in political capital—such as the drop to 34% approval amid the current economic and foreign policy crises [Pew Research Center]—directly diminishes the perceived equity value of the asset. This dynamic has prompted sustained insider liquidations, compounding downward pressure on the stock.
With a beta of about 4, a speculator who believes that President Trump’s approval ratings will bottom and then improve in this political year could make a bet on that outcome by buying DJT or calls on DJT. If a speculator believes that President Trump’s overall political approval ratings will decline to lower levels like the 20s percentages from the current mid-30s, a short position or buying puts would be the way to play that strategy. Either way, a Beta of 4 is a warning of how dramatic the volatility will be in either direction. Option players may contemplate a “straddle.” Warning: All of this is in the speculative risk arena.
By way of disclosure, I have no position in DJT at this time: That could change at any time and without notice.
In my opinion, in addition to the issues raised above, the issues raised in the reading list citations that follow have a negative impact on investors’ perception of the Trump family enterprise, including DJT. The additional unknown is the announcement about a nuclear power investment. I recommend readers take the time to read the articles in the reading list and then do their own research on the subject.
Additional Reading
“Under the Trump crypto playbook, the family always wins. Investors don’t” | Reuters,
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/under-trump-crypto-playbook-family-always-wins-investors-dont-2026-06-09/“Trump family got about $500M from crypto venture — but investors saw steep losses” | CNBC,
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-world-liberty-financial-crypto-alt5-sigma.html“Trump Media & Technology Group” | Wikipedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Media_%26_Technology_Group
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