Does the Trump bear market bring the S&P 500 Index down to 4000? Does it result in a drop of S&P earnings (2025–2026) from the pre-Trump Tariff War estimate of $260–$270 down to the $200–$220 range?
Worst case: Yes! With a serious recession and more upheaval.
Best case: Rapid trade deals are made, and the tariffs are quickly reversed. Market sentiment remains injured, but actual earnings are not as badly hit, and the stock market recovers in the medium term. Remember, the tariff levels presently anticipated are the highest in over a century.
Trump is unpredictable, and his approval rating is falling in the polls. Some Republican supporters are distancing themselves from him. Even Senator Ted Cruz is a tariff critic. Old advice from sailors: “When the rats are leaving a sinking ship, follow the rats.” Opposition to Trump’s unbridled power to impose tariffs is now growing among some GOP senators (“7 GOP senators sign on to bill to check Trump’s trade authority,” https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5236142-congress-tariff-bill-trump/). On the House side, Don Bacon (R-Nebraska) has stepped up to propose that Congress take back the authority to decide tariffs in anything other than an emergency (“Bacon to introduce bill to give tariff authority back to Congress,” https://www.ketv.com/article/bacon-to-introduce-bill-to-give-tariff-authority-back-to-congress/64401194). Time will tell what measures might be taken.
Here’s a reading/viewing list for those who want diverse views and serious evidence.
In January 2025, a website styled as realcdc.org went live. It was an imitation CDC website right down to the graphics, but the information was different — on vaccines and autism, for example.
This morning, we consider the blur of developments surrounding peace negotiations in Ukraine, their impacts on the Ukrainian-American community in Florida and Ukrainian refugees across the US, and possible outcomes. What will Putin agree to, and can he be trusted?
Peter A. Gold addresses issues raised by the executive order targeting the Seattle law firm Perkins Coie and poses questions for every American to think about.
So what does the fate of a once-booming chicken-and-egg industry in my home state of New Jersey have in common with the evolution of the US auto industry? A 25% tariff, that’s what.
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