According to a March 25th JINSA report, these are the two negotiating positions for the US and for Iran as of March 25. They are obviously miles apart.
Journalist Yaron Avraham of Israel’s Channel 12 outlet published, on March 24, what he said is the full 15-point ceasefire framework that President Trump has publicly discussed in recent days. Bloomberg reported on March 24 that Pakistani intermediaries have delivered the proposed framework to Iran.
The 15 points, according to Avraham, are:
1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities;
2. Iran must commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program;
3. For an unspecified time, Iran will not enrich any uranium on its soil;
4. All enriched material inside Iran must be handed over to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency;
5. Iran must dismantle its Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz nuclear facilities;
6. The International Atomic Energy Agency must be granted full access to relevant information about Iran’s nuclear project;
7. Iran must commit to abandoning its proxy program entirely;
8. Iran must fully cease funding and arming its proxies;
9. Iran must commit to allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz;
10. Iran must agree to limitations on the range of its missiles;
11. Iran must agree to restrictions on the number of missiles it has;
12. Iran will be allowed to retain missiles only for self-defense purposes;
13. Sanctions on Iran will be lifted;
14. The United States must commit to not reimposing sanctions; and
15. The United States will help Iran with a civilian nuclear project.
Iran has conveyed its own five demands for a ceasefire agreement, according to Wall Street Journal reporting from March 24. The Journal said U.S. officials view Iran’s proposal as completely unrealistic and a nonstarter, even zany.
The five main Iranian demands reportedly include:
1. Iran charging fees for ships traversing Strait of Hormuz;
2. Pledges that the war will not resume at any point;
3. A commitment that Israel will stop its strikes on Iran’s Hezbollah proxy;
4. The lifting of all sanctions on Iran; and
5. No restrictions being imposed on Iran’s missile program.
(“Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion” (March 25, 2026) | JINSA, https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/operations-epic-fury-and-roaring-lion-3-26-26-update/)
We have an additional contest underway between American impatience and gasoline price expectations versus the military necessity of prosecuting a war at a determined pace. The political timeline and the military one appear to be on a collision course. In my opinion — and in the opinion of many others — Iran is betting that American politics will cause the US to bend its positions.
There is no way to predict any outcome. The Trump administration will decide the sequence of the war effort. Any possible “deal” is problematic, and there is no trust. As I have written several times, this is a war of existential risk; that is not a recipe for easy compromise and ceasefires.
Here’s the latest graphic depiction of the expectations of Americans regarding the gasoline price.
The rough numbers work like this.
Gasoline is up about $1 a gallon. (See AAA Fuel Prices to track the price: https://gasprices.aaa.com/.) Each penny a gallon equates to about a $1.8 billion annualized after-tax cost increase on the collective of American consumers. So, the current war-induced cost run rate is at about $180 billion a year. That is not evenly dispersed. Live in Montana and drive 100 miles a day to work, and it is a lot. Live in a big city and take the subway, and things are different. But wherever you live, the cost of gas is rising, and the economic impact is becoming apparent one way or another.
Meanwhile, the craziness in the airports is simply maddening. Shame on both pollical parties, their leadership, and the White House. They are collectively failing the American public. All sides are laying the blame on the other side(s).
Madness. We don’t pay TSA agents, who still have mortgages and need to eat. We do pay ICE agents who are not trained to be TSA agents. Our Congress segregated funds such that the departments of government cannot reroute these monies. And the economic damage to the US economy grows daily.
And that’s where we are today in the policy outlook. Americans are angry and, it seems, politically restless. Look at the falling approval ratings. I hope (personally) that we stay angry and throw a lot of incumbents out the door. Just my personal view.
Meanwhile, backwardation in the oil futures curve says that world markets are moving away from Hormuz dependency. Oil futures prices are lower as prices stretch out in time. “Backwardation” is normal since it is a discounting mechanism that must consider the cost of storing oil and the interest on the capital in determining a futures price. The latest estimates are that oil will be in more abondance in a few years, and the price will be lower.
Nobody knows for sure.
My best guess for the Federal Reserve is that they do nothing. They don’t drill for oil. They don’t operate tankers. They have no army, so they don’t fight wars. They are seeing the worst of all possible tradeoffs: rising price pressures for many reasons, including those above, and economic slowing from those pressures. The Fed didn’t cause any of this. The shocks are not from monetary policy sources.
The Fed doesn’t want to repeat the history of the 1970s and be too “easy” in policy, because to do so would cause monetary policy to validate the inflationary pressures. The Fed doesn’t want to be too tight, either, because of the economic slowdown pressures. That is what we call being between a rock and a hard place.
The Fed cannot win. These pressures are not coming from monetary policy sources.
My best guess (and hope) is that the Fed keeps the short-term rate above the inflation rate (as measured many ways). That is their best hope of keeping some pressure on the inflationary forces while still trying to keep the monetary policy from being too tight.
If we get a financial crisis, the Fed will act, because keeping the system stable is of paramount concern. Absence a financial shock, they are likely to stand pat on rates for now.
My confidence in any of these scenarios is low.
We are in extraordinary times. The war is the biggest item now on the 2026 agenda.
Further Reading
“Understanding Backwardation: Key Concepts and Trading Insights” | Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/backwardation.asp
Disclosure:
The information posted on this website (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of David R. Kotok. David R. Kotok is an independent contractor. He may independently receive payments from various entities for consulting, advisory and board functions, speaking fees, book royalties, advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs, and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship, or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by David R. Kotok.
Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice. It should not be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security mentioned. Nor should it be construed as an offer to provide investment advisory services by David R. Kotok. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.
This content, which may contain security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only. Do not rely upon it in any manner as investment advice. It is not an endorsement of any practices, products or services. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.
Any charts provided here are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Information in charts has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable; however, David R. Kotok makes no representations about the accuracy of the information.
