“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. You know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.” — Donald Trump, April 9, 2025.
Songwriter Stan Jones (1914–1963) wrote the song “Ghost Riders in the Sky,” which is based on a cowboy legend he heard as a child, back in 1948 or 1949. In the song, the ghost riders, who are condemned to forever chase the devil’s herd, warn a young cowboy that he should change his ways lest he become a ghost rider, too. The song has been recorded and sung by hundreds of artists over the years since.
Here’s the chorus:
“Yippee-yi-oh, yippee-yi-aie! Ghost riders in the sky.”
The third and fourth verses tell the tale:
[Verse 3]
Their faces gaunt, their eyes were blurred, their shirts all soaked with sweat
He’s ridin’ hard to catch that herd, but he ain’t caught ’em yet
‘Cause they’ve got to ride forever on that range up in the sky
On horses snortin’ fire, as they ride on, hear their cry.[Verse 4]
As the riders loped on by him, he heard one call his name
“If you want to save your soul from Hell, a-ridin’ on our range
Then cowboy, change your ways today, or with us you will ride
Tryin’ to catch the Devil’s herd, across these endless skies.”
Here’s Johnny Cash singing “Ghost Riders in the Sky” back in 1987: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMll6TNnTs4. It’s worth a listen, whether for nostalgia’s sake or as an introduction.
Please note that the year 1987 also saw a stock market crash. The selloff started in August 1987 and concluded with the Black Monday crash on October 19. A new Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, confronted massive volatility and a weakening-dollar crisis.
This is a history lesson for younger readers and a reminder lesson for the elders.
On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted 22.6%. I remember it well.
A number of factors contributed to the ’87 crash:
- Overvaluation: stocks were trading at high p/e valuations. Volatility had been rising erratically all year.
- Automated trading systems exacerbated the sell-off with large sell orders. Note that this era preceded the invention of ETFs and the creation/redemption mechanism.
- There were worries about rising interest rates and global economic instability.
- Investors panicked, driving down prices.
- And the biggest item was the US dollar bear market. Details follow:
- The British pound (GBP): The US dollar (USD) weakened against the pound throughout the year. In January 1987, the exchange rate was around 1.50 USD/GBP, but by the October Black Monday crash, it had dropped to about 1.80 USD/GBP.
- Japanese yen (JPY): At the start of 1987, the exchange rate was about 150 JPY/USD; it fell to around 120 JPY/USD by yearend.
- German Deutsche Mark (DEM): The dollar started the year around 2.20 DEM/USD; it dropped to about 1.80 DEM/USD by October.
Dear readers, does any of this look familiar?
We will write separately about the technical miscalculations used in the original trade release from the Trump administration. They are an absolute embarrassment for Navarro and company and their so-called experts. When their miscalculations were revealed in detail, the powers that be realized they had formulated a prescription for a Great Depression-level collapse and that the formula for reciprocal tariffs was hopelessly flawed. Skilled market agents already knew it, which is why they were running for the exits. My guess is that the detailed information explaining the error led Treasury Secretary Bessent to go to Suzie Wiles, who went immediately to Trump, who abruptly staged the theater of the temporary, 90-day pivot. I will have more on the technical issue in a future missive.
Here’s what Trump said: “They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.” Yahoo! Finance reports that the pivot was a move that Trump says came together early Wednesday morning after he had been considering it in recent days.
Trump added, “We decided to pull the trigger, and we did it today and we are happy about it. If you keep going, you are going to be back to where it was four weeks ago.”
In his April 9 report, Yahoo! Finance journalist Ben Werschkul offered context:
The sharp move upward in markets came after Trump paused many tariffs but kept 10% baseline duties in place that came into effect last weekend for all countries.
That baseline does not apply to Mexico or Canada, which still face a separate set of duties related to fentanyl. Separate industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos also remain unchanged.
Kotok’s view — this face-saving “we had this in our mind all the time” approach is BS. The formula from Navarro and Co. was a total miscalculation, and the errors were demonstrated (more on that is coming from me in the future). The credibility damage from DT 2.0 is already done. IMO, Navarro is incompetent and dangerous. IMO, even Musk has realized it and has now publicly rebuked Navarro.
More will be revealed.
“Yippee-yi-oh, yippee-yi-aie. Ghost riders in the sky…”
Sources and Further Reading
Stan Jones (songwriter) – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Jones_(songwriter)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_Jones_(songwriter)“Johnny Cash – Ghost Riders in the Sky Lyrics | Genius Lyrics,” https://genius.com/Johnny-cash-ghost-riders-in-the-sky-lyrics
“Ghost Riders in the Sky: A Cowboy Legend,”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/(Ghost)_Riders_in_the_Sky:_A_Cowboy_Legend“Stampede Mesa: The Story Behind “(Ghost) Riders in the Sky,” https://fairweatherlewis.wordpress.com/2011/10/19/stampede-mesa-the-story-behind-ghost-riders-in-the-sky/
“Trump says he decided on 90-day tariff pause because people were ‘yippy’ and ‘afraid,’”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-he-decided-on-90-day-tariff-pause-because-people-were-yippy-and-afraid-181126787.html
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