In a Trade War, the Guns Are Pointed Inward
President Trump’s use of Great-Depression-era Smoot 338 tariffs, the first time ever in US history, has opened a Pandora’s Box that may alter the outcome of the midterms.
How to Survive Wall Street’s Slip into Pokémon Card Economics
A short story dedicated to Stanley F. Druckenmiller in honor of his August 24th WSJ editorial, followed by two essential reads.
The Scott Bessent Trade
Today we examine a possible trade. Consult your adviser for details and decisions. This discussion is not investment advice.
Trump-Carney, Smoot-Hawley
This weekend we witnessed a first-time use of Smoot-Hawley in American history: Trump actually deployed Section 338 of the Depression-era law against Canada. IMO, this is serious.
Gold: Leen’s Lodge Deck Chat
Our pre-dinner deck chat at Leen’s Lodge on Sunday, August 9, focused on gold, USA creditworthiness, and China’s payments system versus the US payment system. Are we looking at a Bretton Woods 2.0?
Fishing for AI at Leen’s Lodge
We’re cooking up some serious AI conversations along with our fish in Maine. One of our panels during the gathering focused on AI. Two experts contributed, and Eric Hale moderated with aplomb and élan. The Q&A and the continuing post-panel conversation were fierce. There is a report on the panel, along with the associated survey; and in it there can be found 16 AI usage recommendations.
Healthcare in the US: Pillars & Sledgehammers
Our time at Camp Kotok included a riveting discussion around US healthcare policy, funding, and implementation. We follow up this morning with a report on policy blows to the functionality of US healthcare system.
777 Partners Bankruptcy
I strongly recommend readers take 4 minutes to read Chris Whalen’s IRA, “777 Partners and the End of Private Credit.”
“People in the private credit trade will tell you that raising new money today is almost impossible. Why? Because there are growing signs of contagion in the insurance sector…”
Quick Note After Leen’s Lodge: America’s Health
Fishing was great, weather warm; there was one rainy day. Intense, robust conversation with diverse views and collegial discourse was the daily norm.
Report From Leen’s Lodge
I’m sending this note while at the annual Camp Kotok gathering in Maine. It has been quite a week.