J.P. vs. J.P.
Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a long-term, publicly reviewed Fed building project and over Powell’s related testimony is dominating the headlines. We assess market reactions and implications.
A New Year: Looking Back, Looking Ahead
For me, 2025 was a year of accomplishments and change. Here’s to a year of navigating an eventful 2026 together!
SCOTUS Decision on Lisa Cook: Financial Market Impact?
We estimate the market-based pricing of outcomes of the forthcoming SCOTUS decision and its impact on interest rates and the term structure slope.
The Donroe Doctrine Part 2: The Maduro-Hezbollah Connection
The Donroe Doctrine is not only about oil. For the US, it is also about national security.
Venezuela: The Donroe Doctrine Part 1
The Trump Corollary, now the Donroe Doctrine, is shaping US policy toward the Americas. What is unfolding in Venezuela reveals its substance.
Is Cuba Next?
Given the news about Venezuela, we ask if Cuba is the next target of US policy under the Trump Corollary.
From the GIC: “The Dollar and Continued US Exceptionalism”
Pondering the future of the US dollar? This one-day Global Interdependence Center conference is for you.
Is 2026 a Lame Duck Year?
Are winds blowing in our face or from our backs? Presidential lame duck status has an economic characteristic. And, in 2026, there’s a twist.
Gold!
Recently I gave a talk about the history and the future of gold. Watch the talk or read the transcript.
Venezuela, Cuba, Trump Corollary (The New Monroe Doctrine?)
Three recommended reports on the Venezuelan tanker provided perspective that included generally overlooked details worth knowing about, IMO.