Coffee, Fishing, & ICE
Fishing trips start with morning coffee, so we pass on info from JAMA before discussing a recent fishing trip. ICE is last.
Strong Dollar?
Treasury Secretary Bessent favors a “strong dollar.” He works for a president who has said he wants a weaker dollar. With a single chart, we examine what markets are saying.
Trying to Forecast the Price of Gold?
We examine some statistical evidence that may be helpful in estimating the future price of gold using a present set of variables.
Doing the Twist
These are the moves: More short-term T-bills. Shorten US Treasury debt maturity. Try to force interest rates lower.
Kotok Quick Take: Central Bank Attacks – Raising Our Voices, Tillis, Thune, & Warsh
Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair — fine, but the administration’s attacks on the Fed need to stop. Here’s my quick take.
K Is Not Just a Cereal
We thank Michael Drury, Chief Economist at McVean Trading, for permission to share some of his views on the K-shaped economy and the outlook. Discussion follows.
US-Venezuela Policy: Follow the Money
To understand some of the US-Venezuela policy, we must follow the money. Here’s the story as we see it today.
J.P. vs. J.P.
Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a long-term, publicly reviewed Fed building project and over Powell’s related testimony is dominating the headlines. We assess market reactions and implications.
A New Year: Looking Back, Looking Ahead
For me, 2025 was a year of accomplishments and change. Here’s to a year of navigating an eventful 2026 together!
SCOTUS Decision on Lisa Cook: Financial Market Impact?
We estimate the market-based pricing of outcomes of the forthcoming SCOTUS decision and its impact on interest rates and the term structure slope.