Hormuz Quick Take 5/6/2026
As this morning’s headlines suggest progress toward ending the Iran War, I reflect on the markets, a measure of hope, and the enduring problem of the IRGC.
Iran Blockade Strategy Considered
We compare the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with selected blockades from WWI to the present and identify some limits of using economic isolation in a war ceasefire scenario.
Stock Markets in War, Ceasefire, or Problematic Negotiations
Rapidly developing war-related negative sentiment sinks global stock markets. Then, a reversal and a powerful rally occur. The S&P makes a new high in record time. How to see this volatility? What I do with stock vol.
Nero’s Rome Burned; America Is Burning Now
Only a political ignoramus can ignore the burning up of the planet.
The Hormuz Siege
Is it a blockade or is it a siege? These are forms of war not usually examined by the current crop of younger financial market agents. We advise studying history of sieges and their connection to economics.
Utah Now the Epicenter of America’s Measles Epidemic
This is a quick note about Utah and the measles outbreak there. If your family is not vaxed, do you really want to take your children to Utah for a summer vacation?
Hormuz Hope? An Update
As the great economist, philosopher, and sage Yogi Berra wrote on the baseball: “It ain’t over till it’s over.”
Trade-Off: Nukes vs. Gasoline?
It’s not over. The Hormuz Hope Rally was problematic.
The Coming RFK Jr. Health Recession Part 4
RFK Jr.’s policies and appointments do economic damage while they increase sickness and raise mortality. Details follow.
Iran Ceasefire Quick Note
We can all follow the unfolding situation. Biased media reports range from extreme-right praise to extreme-left criticism. But one question is fundamental!