Doing the Twist
These are the moves: More short-term T-bills. Shorten US Treasury debt maturity. Try to force interest rates lower.
Kotok Quick Take: Central Bank Attacks – Raising Our Voices, Tillis, Thune, & Warsh
Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair — fine, but the administration’s attacks on the Fed need to stop. Here’s my quick take.
K Is Not Just a Cereal
We thank Michael Drury, Chief Economist at McVean Trading, for permission to share some of his views on the K-shaped economy and the outlook. Discussion follows.
US-Venezuela Policy: Follow the Money
To understand some of the US-Venezuela policy, we must follow the money. Here’s the story as we see it today.
J.P. vs. J.P.
Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a long-term, publicly reviewed Fed building project and over Powell’s related testimony is dominating the headlines. We assess market reactions and implications.
A New Year: Looking Back, Looking Ahead
For me, 2025 was a year of accomplishments and change. Here’s to a year of navigating an eventful 2026 together!
SCOTUS Decision on Lisa Cook: Financial Market Impact?
We estimate the market-based pricing of outcomes of the forthcoming SCOTUS decision and its impact on interest rates and the term structure slope.
The Donroe Doctrine Part 2: The Maduro-Hezbollah Connection
The Donroe Doctrine is not only about oil. For the US, it is also about national security.
Venezuela: The Donroe Doctrine Part 1
The Trump Corollary, now the Donroe Doctrine, is shaping US policy toward the Americas. What is unfolding in Venezuela reveals its substance.
Is Cuba Next?
Given the news about Venezuela, we ask if Cuba is the next target of US policy under the Trump Corollary.