Claudia, Danny, Michael, The U7 & Me.
First, the Kotok Rule is “Admit you don’t know when you don’t know.” Stop the publishing alarmist predictions about a coming catastrophe. All those who predict turmoil and outrageous attention-getting outcomes are simply guessing. Nostradamus was NOT a financial or economic analyst.
Readers’ Turn: Climate & Project 2025
Readers replied to our two-part series about Project 2025 and its impact on climate mitigation and the environment. Not a single reader emailed with a positive statement about the Heritage Foundation or about Project 2025. None defended this radicalized version from what used to be a conservative think tank.
Jacob Frenkel, Kathleen Hays, Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview.
Climate Change, Markets, Economics – Part 2
We wish our readers a pleasant Labor Day weekend. Please take a few minutes for a serious commentary and then freely share it with friends, if you are so inclined. They are invited to sign up for free and receive my future commentaries.
A Report from Camp Kotok by Bill Kennedy
Bill Kennedy is a regular invitee in Maine and the Chair of the Global Interdependence Center (https://www.interdependence.org/). He published this excellent summary of our gathering in Maine. I thank him for permission to share it with readers. Here’s Bill Kennedy about his experience in Maine.
The BLS Revision
The recent BLS revision has caused a stir. Please take 2 minutes to read it.
Every economist with skills knows that the BLS is fully transparent as to methods and results. Every skillful economist knows that dealing with numbers about a US labor force measured at over 150 million people it is a professional attempt at an estimation to obtain clarity. And every economist worth his/her salt knows that there is neither a conspiracy to hide data nor a political conspiracy to influence elections.
Climate Change, Markets, Economics – Part 1
A reader chastised me because I asked how Florida business schools are supposed to teach the economic and financial effects from climate change when they are not permitted to mention the words climate change in textbooks. The reader said the subject is “political” and has no place in financial/economic/market newsletters. That reader is entitled to his opinion. So are you.
Profits, GDP, Markets
Profits and GDP help explain the stock market rally of the post-Covid period.
Corporate earnings come from these profits. The computation of profits in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) are derived from a consistent series. These are “economic profits” versus earnings reported using GAAP accounting (“generally accepted accounting principles”).
CCC? Not For Me!
On July 24th and after all the political turmoil, the CCC option adjusted spread (OAS) to US Treasurys was about 800 basis points and that is higher than at the end of March. Source: Bloomberg.
Uncertainty
Mr. Market had answered this way about recent uncertainty: “Gimme bad news or gimme good news, but don’t gimme no news.”
