In his recent column, “Denominator Blindness, Tylenol Edition,” Barry Ritholtz discussed the RFK Jr./Tylenol affair. Readers can find his commentary here:
https://ritholtz.com/2025/09/denominator-blindness-tylenol-edition
Within his missive is a link (on X) to a one-minute clip from a Newsmax interview with Senator Ron Johnson, linked below.
On Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lzixt5g7di2q
We will excerpt from Barry in a minute but first need to clearly explain what may be difficult to hear for some and what is mistyped in the narrative above the video.
The senator references both the VAERS database and the FAERS database. Here’s a Google AI overview of the different information about the two, using the search string “VAERS vs FAERS.” Clearly not apples and apples.
VAERS and FAERS are both U.S. government systems for reporting adverse events, but they focus on different products: VAERS collects reports specifically for vaccine-related adverse events, while FAERS collects reports for all other drugs and medical products. VAERS reports can be submitted by healthcare professionals, vaccine manufacturers, and the public, and it functions as an early warning system for potential vaccine safety issues, while FAERS collects similar data for a broader range of products through systems like MedWatch.
In the NewsMax clip, Johnson said:
In 56 years of tracking Tylenol, there have been 39,540 deaths reported to FAERS [spelling corrected here]. That’s 706 per year. For ivermectin —remember, the one that they said was so dangerous? —in 29 years reporting, 493 deaths, 17 a year.
Senator Johnson argues for giving parents the right to informed consent. Okay, that is a current political debate, and parents’ rights seem to have won it. Senator Johnson admits that the causality of the deaths is unknown. Okay, he is correctly stating that part. But he then cites raw numbers as the basis for drawing conclusions, and without further context. These numbers need denominators to have any useful meaning, and the senator does not provide those denominators. Enter Barry Ritholtz.
Barry describes what he calls “denominator blindness,” his term for the type of error in the political statement made by Senator Johnson. He discusses this error at some length in his new book, How Not to Invest: Stop Making Avoidable Mistakes.
Here’s Barry, excerpted:
I spill a lot of words about denominator blindness in How Not to Invest. The opportunities to demonstrate terrible examples of denominator blindness are never-ending. The latest abuse of numbers — and one of the most absurd ones you will ever see — comes from somebody who should know better, Senator Ron Johnson.
After the Johnson interview clip, Barry continues:
It’s a classic denominator blindness example, because you are NOT seeing the total number of doses in question. By only showing the number of deaths (the numerator) but not the size of the data set (the denominator), we see an apparent attempt to mislead the viewer.
To do a fair “Apples to Apples” comparison, the first thing you would need is the number of doses of each drug that are consumed annually:
“More than 25 billion acetaminophen doses are sold in the US annually.” That’s in 2023; this year, the number is over 28 billion. (See GMI, JAMA, and ATrain.)
And ivermectin?
“Approximately 450,000 outpatient prescriptions for ivermectin were filled in the United States in 2023.” (See Cognitive, ClinCalc.)
In other words, there are roughly 50,000 times more doses of acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, consumed each year than doses of ivermectin.
If as few doses of Tylenol were consumed each year as ivermectin, there would be one acetaminophen death every 72 years.
And, if as many doses of ivermectin as Tylenol were consumed each year, the body count in the US for the antiparasitic drug would be over 850,000 deaths annually. That would be like losing the entire population of a city like Indianapolis or San Francisco — every year.
Always pay attention when people intentionally misrepresent numbers to deceive you. They are up to no good, and often have a hand in your pocket…
We recommend Barry’s new book to readers. Here’s the link.
How Not to Invest: Stop Making Avoidable Mistakes
https://www.hownottoinvestbook.com
And for those who have the time, here’s Barry’s interview with Bruce Mehlman about the book.
Bruce Mehlman featured the video in his ever-interesting Substack letter, “Bruce Mehlman’s Age of Disruption,” as one of the features in his weekly “Six-Chart Sunday” post:
A final Kotok note: Isn’t there an old saying about figures and liars? I seem to recall it. Do you?
Reading List
“Editorial: Ivermectin rides again — this time in Florida’s cancer fund” | Orlando Sentinel, https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/10/03/ivermectin-rides-again-this-time-in-floridas-cancer-fund-editorial/
“Have your child’s classmates had shots? In Florida, good luck finding out.” | Sun Sentinel, https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2025/09/28/have-your-childs-classmates-had-shots-in-florida-good-luck-finding-out/
“KFF Tracking Poll on Health Information and Trust: Tylenol-Autism Link and Vaccine Policies” | KFF, https://www.kff.org/public-opinion/kff-tracking-poll-on-health-information-and-trust-tylenol-autism-link-and-vaccine-policies/
