Insights and Reflections

We wish all readers a safe and successful Thanksgiving weekend. We’re about to enter the ‘’lame duck” congressional session. Will we have 3 weeks of chaos or clarity?

On Sunday, October 27, 2024, I cited the evolution of history in the WW2 era, in the 1930s and the 1940s, and got a lot of responses (“A History Lesson?” https://kotokreport.com/a-history-lesson/). We thank readers for those responses. 

 One astute reader had a sensible question about my October 27th missive. He asked, how could Stalin’s divisions that he sent into Germany have been combat-trained against the Japanese when the dates don’t work?

Financial market agents are paying close attention to the coming reorganization of the new Congress – for good reason. Changes are coming and they may be big.

Kathleen Hays of Central Bank Central was kind enough to ask for my initial response to the election. Here’s the interview (edited for readability) which was recorded the day after Election Day.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” the 78-year-old president-elect said to a roaring crowd of supporters.

“It is the duty of the President to propose and it is the privilege of the Congress to dispose.”
– Franklin D. Roosevelt

This Sunday’s missive is about geopolitical risk and what may be leading to a war.  IMO, we already have a “proxy” war.  Did we learn anything from the 1930s? Is history “rhyming?”

The presidential election betting has made headlines in a unique way in this 2024 election marathon. So has stock option trading. Some speculate that the two have become interrelated. Here’s some food for thought. 

The Climate Adaptation Center will be holding a conference at ground zero in Sarasota, at the University of South Florida Conference Center, November 14–15. It is now expected to be a blockbuster event.

In the context of a deeply troubled region in the world, this is a story of constructive cooperation among Muslims and Jews, Bedouin and Israeli partners, women and men.

Rebuilding, cleanup, mitigation, maintenance, infrastructure repairs in 7 states will require 100s of thousands of additional people working. We need to import more labor, not deport. Fix DACA now. U7 says Labor market still tight, just less so than Covid shock. Congress must act quickly and stop politicizing the national economy and threatening the future.  Now here’s a study lesson for serious Nerds. Praise and thanks to historian Philipa Dunne for her excellent assistance. 

A rule of thumb is that when politics gets inserted into the management of your money, be very careful and watch the money.    

We’ve seen that with ETFs like ACVF or ESGU or HKND or MAGA or PRAY or STRV or YALL, which have various alleged political agendas incorporated into their investment policies.  And we’ve observed the remarkable and volatile trading in the stock DJT.   I am not recommending nor endorsing any of these securities.  Readers may research them and their price action and decide for themselves.