
Stagflation Hits the K
Slowing growth and higher prices equal “stagflation,” the worst of all possible economic worlds for policymakers (the Fed) and for those persons in the bottom leg of the K.
David Kotok offers insights and analysis on current economic and political issues and their potential impact on global financial markets. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV, and Bloomberg Radio, Fox Business, and other media.

Slowing growth and higher prices equal “stagflation,” the worst of all possible economic worlds for policymakers (the Fed) and for those persons in the bottom leg of the K.

Climate change mitigation in America was officially reversed on February 12, 2026. The Trump-Vought-Zeldin policy is officially announced. There are known & unknown consequences. One of them could be a killer.

No one can forecast the outcome in the short term. Guess? Yes. Multiple scenarios? Yes. Forecast with confidence? No! But there is history for guidance.

In this update, we survey the implications of RFK Jr.’s leadership in US public health.

A regional war that includes existential risks is underway. Outcomes evolve. All predictions are problematic.

We ask if recent market volatility was a broad market correction or a reallocation within and among asset classes. Or is something else driving volatility because of disruption (AI, tariffs, wars, federal deficits)?

FL Gov DeSantis is trying to take the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus and transfer it to New College. IMO, this would be a disaster for the Sarasota-Manatee community and the state.

Trump’s Venezuela actions have lessened the Maduro threat to oil production in various South American countries. The outcome has possible bullish scenarios for oil.

Fishing trips start with morning coffee, so we pass on info from JAMA before discussing a recent fishing trip. ICE is last.

Treasury Secretary Bessent favors a “strong dollar.” He works for a president who has said he wants a weaker dollar. With a single chart, we examine what markets are saying.

We examine some statistical evidence that may be helpful in estimating the future price of gold using a present set of variables.

These are the moves: More short-term T-bills. Shorten US Treasury debt maturity. Try to force interest rates lower.