Insights and Reflections

According to the CBO, President Trump’s numbers don’t add up. I discuss the deficit, the “Nifty 14,” the bond market, and the price of protectionism.

Is a positive “real” interest rate necessary? Let’s look at the data.

I offer an example (my opinion) of how possible market dysfunction has presented a bond trade opportunity to seize a market pricing anomaly.

R. Christopher Whalen’s Inflated details how America has navigated its eventful history using debt and inflation. What can we learn from the past as we consider what lies ahead?

Rick Newman reports on what a non-zero US default risk costs us. I offer my two-minute take.

Section 70302 of the Big Beautiful Bill targets the federal courts, with huge implications for individuals, businesses and fiduciaries of all types.

An ICE raid impacts individuals, families, businesses, and the economy.

We mull the economic impacts of pandemics and tariffdemics and the value of fishing trips.

The US Memorial Day tradition of wearing a poppy in memory of the fallen began in a Flanders field during WWI, after the dead were laid to rest among the flowers.

Mike McKee remembers August 5, 2011, when S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the United States for the first time.

I estimate the earnings-per-share shock that is commencing in Q2, 2025. It is likely to intensify as the year progresses.

Whatever the US spends (or doesn’t) on the public health response to measles, measles cases drive high productivity costs.