Tariffs, Trade, and the Coming Recession
To understand the mess that the Trump tariffs rollout, math errors, bombastic threats, and chaos have caused, you need only put yourself in the position of a merchant in America.
April 29, 2025
David Kotok offers insights and analysis on current economic and political issues and their potential impact on global financial markets. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV, and Bloomberg Radio, Fox Business, and other media.
To understand the mess that the Trump tariffs rollout, math errors, bombastic threats, and chaos have caused, you need only put yourself in the position of a merchant in America.
The question for Americans to ponder is about how Trump negotiates. Trying to bully a courageous resistance only emboldens Putin.
Is Putin interested in negotiating peace with Ukraine? What are the Trump’s administration’s blind spots where Putin’s motives are concerned?
Tariff-induced volatility impacts bonds issued by various companies, governments, the federal government, state and local governments.
What strategies do options traders use? How does an options trader know what to buy or sell and at what price to do it?
Robertson concludes, “Trump must reboot and take up Congress as a full partner in all his agenda.”
There are two errors. He didn’t make them. He did read them aloud to the entire world.
Did Trump pause tariffs announced on April 4 because people were “getting a little bit yippy” or because miscalculations spelled disaster?
On April 4, Jack Farley and I discussed the Trump 2.0 tariffs in depth, and I held nothing back.
Does the Trump bear market bring the S&P 500 Index down to 4000? Does it result in a drop of S&P earnings (2025–2026) down to the $200–$220 range?
I asked expert David Blond why Trump and Co. selected a bizarre and discredited approach to create its trade deficit formula.