Is It a Trump Bump or Trump Slump?
Is it a pullback of 5–6–7%, which can happen several times a year? Is it a correction (10% or more)? Is it serious? Will it become a bear market sell-off (20% or more)?
March 11, 2025
David Kotok offers insights and analysis on current economic and political issues and their potential impact on global financial markets. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV, and Bloomberg Radio, Fox Business, and other media.
Is it a pullback of 5–6–7%, which can happen several times a year? Is it a correction (10% or more)? Is it serious? Will it become a bear market sell-off (20% or more)?
Hundreds of millions of people witnessed the recent shoot-out in the Oval Office. Among them, in the room, was a reporter from Russian media. Here are some takeaways.
As H5N1 bird flu spreads across mammals and has now reached rats, we are reminded of Chapter 7 in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks. That chapter focuses on the Plague of Justinian in the Eastern Roman Empire, where plague (caused by the Yersinia pestis bacterium) spread with the range of infected oriental rat fleas.
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list.
We are live with our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com). My co-authors and I have nearly five years invested in the effort. We appreciate the positive reviews the book has received so far. Here are two recent ones from independent reviewers:
Debt and deficits. Everywhere I look, read, listen, observe, or encounter in person or by text or by email, there are wannabe Cassandras predicting a calamity over debt and the deficit.
We thank readers for their feedback on the January 26 Sunday Kotok Report, “Trump 2.0 and Healthcare?” (https://kotokreport.com/trump-2-0-healthcare/).
And, yes, the book — The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks — is finished and will be released on February 12. Details regarding preorders are updated at https://www.thefedandtheflu.com. Two recent reviews are out, at Kirkus Reviews and Readers’ Favorite.
“The only certainty in (fiscal, trade and monetary) policy, politics, in our capital markets, in our social lives and, even in sports, is the lack of certainty these days.” — Doug Kass
Trump 2.0 tariffs and our trading partners’ retaliations are taking shape. What can we expect? Today I offer my own macro perspective and some thoughts from others.
I wrote about America’s national defense on the Sunday before Trump 2.0 Inauguration Day (https://kotokreport.com/national-defense/). Many thanks to readers for their varied viewpoints and responses. Here are some additional observations.
In the US stock market, the healthcare sector is represented by the sector spider XLV. Here’s a recent pre-inauguration picture of the sector spider’s performance.
