Oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday. As things stand right now, we think Brent could hit $100/b, as the market grapples with the threat of a potential supply disruption amid a spiraling security situation in the Middle East. – Barclay’s email to registered users, February 28, 2026
A war that includes existential risks is underway in the Middle East. Outcomes evolve. All predictions are problematic.
The war is regional and quickly evolving, so analysis and opinion are outdated by the time they are released. We follow media from Al Jazeera to AP and Reuters to Bloomberg and Yahoo to other traditional news outlets, along with military analysts.
In understanding the conflict the US and Israel have taken on, note that Iran is the head of the snake — a cooperative of bad actors in the Middle East. They include Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and others. (Russia is an ally, but not necessarily one that Iran can depend on.) This map may be helpful in understanding the extent of reach of the regime in Iran. It is actually a map of leaders lost in recent years among Iran and its allies between October of 2023 and October of 2025, published by the American Enterprise Institute. To the list we now add Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. His death does not herald regime change in Iran.
As news of the initial attack unfolded yesterday morning, I recorded my initial thoughts. Today’s quick take video, recorded on Saturday morning, February 28, is the first of several, which will also be posted to my YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@David-R-Kotok.
As events rapidly unfold, I’ve been consulting experts and reading analyses. Here are reads you don’t want to miss, to add to mainstream news coverage.
Reading and Resources
“Iran Update Evening Special Report, February 28, 2026 | ISW,
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-february-28-2026/
“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2026” | ISW,
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2026/
“How Far Can Russian Arms Help Iran?” | Carnegie Politika, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/02/russia-iran-military-support
“Hezbollah’s Limited Options for Supporting Iran” | ISW,
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/hezbollahs-limited-options-for-supporting-iran/
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