Insights and Reflections

A regional war that includes existential risks is underway. Outcomes evolve. All predictions are problematic.

We ask if recent market volatility was a broad market correction or a reallocation within and among asset classes. Or is something else driving volatility because of disruption (AI, tariffs, wars, federal deficits)?

FL Gov DeSantis is trying to take the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus and transfer it to New College. IMO, this would be a disaster for the Sarasota-Manatee community and the state.

Trump’s Venezuela actions have lessened the Maduro threat to oil production in various South American countries. The outcome has possible bullish scenarios for oil.

Fishing trips start with morning coffee, so we pass on info from JAMA before discussing a recent fishing trip. ICE is last.

Treasury Secretary Bessent favors a “strong dollar.” He works for a president who has said he wants a weaker dollar. With a single chart, we examine what markets are saying.

We examine some statistical evidence that may be helpful in estimating the future price of gold using a present set of variables.

These are the moves: More short-term T-bills. Shorten US Treasury debt maturity. Try to force interest rates lower.

Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair — fine, but the administration’s attacks on the Fed need to stop. Here’s my quick take.

We thank Michael Drury, Chief Economist at McVean Trading, for permission to share some of his views on the K-shaped economy and the outlook. Discussion follows.

To understand some of the US-Venezuela policy, we must follow the money. Here’s the story as we see it today.

Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a long-term, publicly reviewed Fed building project and over Powell’s related testimony is dominating the headlines. We assess market reactions and implications.